• Investors may be wondering whether ManpowerGroup at around US$29.37 is starting to look like value, or if the market is pricing in deeper concerns about the business.
• The stock has risen 13.1% over the past week, although it remains down 6.9% over the last month, 2.3% year to date and 27.1% over the past year, which may signal changing views on its risk and recovery potential.
• Recent coverage has focused on ManpowerGroup as a long established player in global staffing and human capital services, with investors weighing how demand for its services aligns with shifting hiring patterns. Headlines have also highlighted how the stock's longer term share price decline of 53.9% over three years and 71.1% over five years frames the recent short term rebound.
• Against this share price history, ManpowerGroup currently scores 6 out of 6 on our valuation checks. This article will walk through those valuation methods and then finish with a fuller way to understand what that valuation may mean for you.

Approach 1: ManpowerGroup Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today’s dollars to estimate what the business might be worth right now.

For ManpowerGroup, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of $138.7 million. Analyst and extrapolated projections then step this to positive free cash flow, with Simply Wall St data showing forecast free cash flow of $138.2 million in 2026 and $222.3 million in 2027, followed by $207.0 million in 2028. Beyond the analyst horizon, further free cash flow out to 2035 is extrapolated rather than directly forecast by analysts.

Discounting these projected cash flows back to today produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.16 per share. Compared with the recent share price around $29.37, this DCF output suggests the stock trades at a 49.5% discount to that intrinsic estimate. On this model alone, that points to potential undervaluation.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests ManpowerGroup is undervalued by 49.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 49 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: ManpowerGroup Price vs Sales

For companies where profits are weak or volatile, revenue based metrics such as the Price to Sales, or P/S, ratio are often more useful than earnings based measures. Sales tend to be more stable than earnings, so P/S can give you a cleaner view of how the market values each dollar of revenue without being skewed by short term profit swings.

In general, higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/S multiple, while slower expected growth or higher risk can point to a lower, more cautious P/S level. ManpowerGroup currently trades on a P/S ratio of 0.07x. This is well below both the Professional Services industry average P/S of 0.92x and the peer group average of 0.64x.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for ManpowerGroup is 0.60x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/S could be given factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, profit margin, industry, market cap and risk characteristics. Because it adjusts for these company specific features, the Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry. Compared with the actual P/S of 0.07x, the Fair Ratio indicates that ManpowerGroup is trading well below that reference level.

Result: UNDERVALUED

P/S ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 20 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your ManpowerGroup Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives bring that to life by letting you attach a clear story about ManpowerGroup to your numbers, including your view of fair value and your assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives connect three pieces for you: the company story, the financial forecast and the resulting fair value. They then compare that fair value with today’s share price to help you decide whether the stock looks closer to a buy, a hold or a sell for your own approach.

Because Narratives update automatically when new information such as news or earnings is added, you are not locked into a static model and can quickly see how a fresh data point shifts your view instead of rebuilding spreadsheets each time.

For ManpowerGroup, one investor Narrative currently anchors on a higher fair value of about US$45.00 per share with assumptions like revenue of roughly US$20.6b and earnings of about US$362.5m. Another more cautious Narrative sits nearer US$30.00. By seeing that spread side by side you can decide which story, and which set of numbers, feels closer to your own expectations.

Do you think there's more to the story for ManpowerGroup? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.