If you have been eyeing Silgan Holdings (NYSE:SLGN), the recent announcement and completion of its €600 million senior unsecured notes offering might have caught your attention. This move allows Silgan to refinance existing revolving loans and could give the company more flexibility with its debt structure. These kinds of actions often influence how investors think about a company’s risk profile, especially when the proceeds are aimed at strengthening liquidity and funding broader corporate strategies.

Looking at the broader picture, this debt move comes at a time when Silgan’s share price has retreated over the past year. While the past five years saw the stock gain 30%, more recent momentum has reversed, with a nearly 10% slide over the past twelve months and a steeper drop in the past quarter. Investors have seen mixed signals elsewhere as well, with annual revenue and net income both ticking higher, even as broader market sentiment toward the sector has wavered.

After a year of downward momentum and with a fresh round of debt on the books, do current valuations suggest room for recovery or has the market already priced in Silgan’s next chapter?

Most Popular Narrative: 25.2% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed narrative, Silgan Holdings is viewed as significantly undervalued relative to analyst expectations, with the consensus suggesting a notable margin of safety. This perspective hinges on strong catalysts in the company’s business model and future growth initiatives.

• Strong organic growth in high-value dispensing products and successful integration of the Weener acquisition create incremental cross-selling and innovation opportunities, especially in fast-growing end-markets like personal care, beauty, and home care. These factors are poised to support sustained above-market revenue growth and higher margins.

Think the analysts are overly optimistic? Or maybe you suspect there is an earnings surprise lurking in the details? The engine driving this valuation is built on a foundation of future profit growth and margin expansion, which could change the narrative for this stock. Wondering what dominates the fair value math—momentum from core packaging wins or bold future profit targets? Read the full breakdown to uncover the surprising assumptions powering this price forecast.

Result: Fair Value of $59.45 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, shifts in consumer preferences away from shelf-stable packaging or increases in raw material costs could challenge Silgan’s long-term growth assumptions and profit margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Silgan Holdings narrative.

Another View: What Does Our DCF Model Say?

While analyst forecasts point to notable upside, our SWS DCF model also sees the stock as undervalued at its current price. However, as always, models are built on assumptions. Will the real market outcome match either view?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day ( check out Silgan Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Silgan Holdings Narrative

If you’re not convinced by these conclusions or if you prefer to dig into the figures yourself, you can quickly develop your own perspective in just a few minutes by using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Silgan Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.