Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT) has moved back into the spotlight after revealing it will supply specialized lunar tires for Lunar Outpost’s Pegasus Lunar Terrain Vehicle, which is part of NASA’s Artemis missions that are planned to begin supporting astronauts in 2028.

Despite the Artemis contract drawing fresh attention, Goodyear’s recent trading tells a different story. The stock’s 30-day share price return is down 12.22% and its 1-year total shareholder return has fallen 51.53%, suggesting momentum has been weak even as new projects emerge.

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With Goodyear reporting a recent loss, a value score of 4 and the stock down sharply over 1 and 5 years, the key question is whether this is distressed value or if the market is already pricing in any future recovery.

Most Popular Narrative: 36.2% Undervalued

With Goodyear’s shares last closing at $5.71 against a narrative fair value of $8.94, the current pricing sits well below what this widely followed valuation framework implies.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $8.94 for Goodyear Tire & Rubber based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

Curious what is built into that gap between price and fair value? The narrative leans heavily on a profit swing, firmer margins, and a re rated earnings multiple. The exact mix of revenue stability, margin rebuild, and future P/E assumptions is what really drives that $8.94 figure.

Result: Fair Value of $8.94 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the story can flip quickly if competition from low cost Asian manufacturers keeps pressuring pricing, or if trade disruptions and tariffs keep swelling Goodyear’s cost base.

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Another View: Cash Flows Point The Other Way

There is a catch. While the narrative fair value sits at $8.94, our DCF model points to an estimate of $2.68 per share, which suggests the stock is trading well above its modeled future cash flow value. When two methods disagree this much, which one do you trust?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Goodyear Tire & Rubber for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 48 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With sentiment clearly mixed and both risks and rewards on the table, it makes sense to review the numbers yourself and then move quickly to shape your own view using the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Goodyear has you thinking more broadly about your portfolio, it makes sense to widen the search now rather than wait for the next headline move.

• Spot potential bargains early by scanning 48 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid fundamentals with appealing price tags.
• Build a steadier income stream by focusing on 10 dividend fortresses offering higher yields that may complement more growth focused holdings.
• Sleep a little easier by reviewing 63 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on resilience and downside protection.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.