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CEE MARKETS-Central European stocks fall but head for weekly gain, FX near lows
P10, INC. PX | 12.11 | +3.86% |
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S&P 500 index SPX | 5837.30 | +3.13% |
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PRAGUE, April 11 (Reuters) - Central European stock markets fell on Friday, but stayed on course to end the week showing gains, winning back a little ground as markets continue to get hit by tariff whiplash.
Currencies, meanwhile, were ending a roller-coaster week on a dip, with worries over an escalating Sino-U.S. trade war after U.S. President Donald Trump ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese imports, and Beijing retaliated.
The moves followed a pause in most U.S. tariffs on other countries, including for the European Union, which had sparked a relief rally on Thursday.
On Friday, assets fell back, with Prague .PX and Budapest .BUX stock indexes falling up to 1.8% by 0939 GMT. Warsaw's blue-chip index .WIG20 had dropped 0.9%.
Following 8-10% falls last week when U.S. "reciprocal" tariffs were first announced - the biggest drop in central Europe since at least 2022 - the region's indexes had regained about 0.8-2.6% this week by mid-day.
Currencies have also been hit and stuck near recent lows on Friday.
"The CEE market remains fully in the grip of the global story, which late yesterday switched the region back into risk-off mode," ING said.
The Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.6% lower on the day at 4.294 per euro, around a more than four-month low beyond 4.300. Markets in Warsaw have started pricing in interest rate cuts after the Polish central bank governor made a dovish shift, adding pressure on the currency.
Hungary's forint EURHUF= was near a 2-1/2 month low, down 0.6% at 410.35 to the euro.
The weakness comes despite a softer dollar.
"I think in the current environment, where the U.S. is the main source of uncertainty/risk, the safe-haven status of the greenback is being challenged, and therefore the inverse relationship between USD flows and EM flows is no longer valid, at least temporarily," Komercni Banka economist Jaromir Gec said.
"Today's depreciation of CEE currencies seems to reflect the general risk-off sentiment ... on the back of escalation of the China-U.S. trade war."
The Czech crown EURCZK=, though, outperformed and was less than 0.1% lower at 25.135 per euro, helped somewhat by hawkish comments from Czech central bank Governor Ales Michl in a newspaper interview on Friday, in which he said all options on rates were open and pointed to inflationary risks.
With U.S. trade policy raising uncertainty and hurting investment activity, central Europe's economies are bracing for slower growth, mainly via their trade with EU partners like Germany rather than direct U.S. trade.
On Thursday, the Czech finance ministry cut its 2025 growth forecast to 2.0% from 2.3%. The ministry said its outlook included U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminium, cars and car parts but not additional across-the-board tariffs that have been suspended.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1139 CET |
|||||
CURRENCIES |
Latest trade |
Previous close |
Daily change |
Change in 2025 |
|
Czech crown |
EURCZK= |
25.1350 |
25.1200 |
-0.06% |
+0.26% |
Hungary forint |
EURHUF= |
410.3500 |
408.0000 |
-0.57% |
+0.27% |
Polish zloty |
EURPLN= |
4.2940 |
4.2700 |
-0.56% |
-0.37% |
Romanian leu |
EURRON= |
4.9775 |
4.9780 |
+0.01% |
-0.11% |
Serbian dinar |
EURRSD= |
117.0800 |
117.1200 |
+0.03% |
-0.11% |
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET |
|||||
|
|||||
STOCKS |
Latest |
Previous close |
Daily change |
Change in 2025 |
|
Prague |
.PX |
1967.88 |
2002.8300 |
-1.75% |
+11.80% |
Budapest |
.BUX |
84811.54 |
86253.25 |
-1.67% |
+6.91% |
Warsaw |
.WIG20 |
2530.65 |
2553.57 |
-0.90% |
+15.45% |
Bucharest |
.BETI |
17071.12 |
16966.28 |
+0.62% |
+2.10% |
|
|||||
BONDS |
Yield (bid) |
Yield change |
Spread vs Bund |
Daily change in spread |
|
Czech Rep 2-year |
CZ2YT=RR |
3.2900 |
-0.0070 |
+154bps |
+6bps |
Czech Rep 5-year |
CZ5YT=RR |
3.6610 |
-0.0150 |
+156bps |
+2bps |
Czech Rep 10-year |
CZ10YT=RR |
4.1380 |
-0.0190 |
+158bps |
+1bps |
Poland 2-year |
PL2YT=RR |
4.4090 |
-0.0560 |
+266bps |
+2bps |
Poland 5-year |
PL5YT=RR |
4.8080 |
-0.0620 |
+271bps |
-3bps |
Poland 10-year |
PL10YT=RR |
5.2810 |
-0.0420 |
+272bps |
-2bps |
|
|||||
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS |
3x6 |
6x9 |
9x12 |
3M interbank |
|
Czech Rep |
CZKFRA, PRIBOR= |
3.42 |
3.17 |
2.96 |
3.68 |
Hungary |
HUFFRA, BUBOR= |
6.99 |
6.86 |
6.47 |
6.50 |
Poland |
PLNFRA, WIBOR= |
4.43 |
3.97 |
3.76 |
5.59 |
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices |
(Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Anita Komuves in Budapest and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw. Editing by Mark Potter)
((breaking-news-cee@thomsonreuters.com))