CEE MARKETS-Central European stocks fall but head for weekly gain, FX near lows

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P10, INC.

PX

12.11

+3.86%

Dow Jones Industrial Average

DJI

42385.50

+2.75%

S&P 500 index

SPX

5837.30

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NASDAQ

IXIC

18689.07

+4.24%

- Central European stock markets fell on Friday, but stayed on course to end the week showing gains, winning back a little ground as markets continue to get hit by tariff whiplash.

Currencies, meanwhile, were ending a roller-coaster week on a dip, with worries over an escalating Sino-U.S. trade war after U.S. President Donald Trump ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese imports, and Beijing retaliated.

The moves followed a pause in most U.S. tariffs on other countries, including for the European Union, which had sparked a relief rally on Thursday.

On Friday, assets fell back, with Prague .PX and Budapest .BUX stock indexes falling up to 1.8% by 0939 GMT. Warsaw's blue-chip index .WIG20 had dropped 0.9%.

Following 8-10% falls last week when U.S. "reciprocal" tariffs were first announced - the biggest drop in central Europe since at least 2022 - the region's indexes had regained about 0.8-2.6% this week by mid-day.

Currencies have also been hit and stuck near recent lows on Friday.

"The CEE market remains fully in the grip of the global story, which late yesterday switched the region back into risk-off mode," ING said.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.6% lower on the day at 4.294 per euro, around a more than four-month low beyond 4.300. Markets in Warsaw have started pricing in interest rate cuts after the Polish central bank governor made a dovish shift, adding pressure on the currency.

Hungary's forint EURHUF= was near a 2-1/2 month low, down 0.6% at 410.35 to the euro.

The weakness comes despite a softer dollar.

"I think in the current environment, where the U.S. is the main source of uncertainty/risk, the safe-haven status of the greenback is being challenged, and therefore the inverse relationship between USD flows and EM flows is no longer valid, at least temporarily," Komercni Banka economist Jaromir Gec said.

"Today's depreciation of CEE currencies seems to reflect the general risk-off sentiment ... on the back of escalation of the China-U.S. trade war."

The Czech crown EURCZK=, though, outperformed and was less than 0.1% lower at 25.135 per euro, helped somewhat by hawkish comments from Czech central bank Governor Ales Michl in a newspaper interview on Friday, in which he said all options on rates were open and pointed to inflationary risks.

With U.S. trade policy raising uncertainty and hurting investment activity, central Europe's economies are bracing for slower growth, mainly via their trade with EU partners like Germany rather than direct U.S. trade.

On Thursday, the Czech finance ministry cut its 2025 growth forecast to 2.0% from 2.3%. The ministry said its outlook included U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminium, cars and car parts but not additional across-the-board tariffs that have been suspended.


CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1139 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.1350

25.1200

-0.06%

+0.26%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

410.3500

408.0000

-0.57%

+0.27%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2940

4.2700

-0.56%

-0.37%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9775

4.9780

+0.01%

-0.11%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0800

117.1200

+0.03%

-0.11%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

1967.88

2002.8300

-1.75%

+11.80%

Budapest

.BUX

84811.54

86253.25

-1.67%

+6.91%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2530.65

2553.57

-0.90%

+15.45%

Bucharest

.BETI

17071.12

16966.28

+0.62%

+2.10%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.2900

-0.0070

+154bps

+6bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.6610

-0.0150

+156bps

+2bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.1380

-0.0190

+158bps

+1bps







Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.4090

-0.0560

+266bps

+2bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.8080

-0.0620

+271bps

-3bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.2810

-0.0420

+272bps

-2bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.42

3.17

2.96

3.68

Hungary

HUFFRA, BUBOR=

6.99

6.86

6.47

6.50

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

4.43

3.97

3.76

5.59

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices


(Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Anita Komuves in Budapest and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw. Editing by Mark Potter)

((breaking-news-cee@thomsonreuters.com))

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