Citi lowers its near-term gold price target to $4,000 per ounce
Citigroup C | 0.00 |
June 8 (Reuters) - Citi said on Monday it cut its near-term gold price target to $4,000 per ounce from $4,300 on expectations of higher U.S. interest rates this year due to the Strait of Hormuz impasse and high energy prices, adding that bullion's recent strength was hard to sustain without continued strong physical demand.
Gold was trading steady at $4,330 an ounce at 11:30 a.m. EDT (1530 GMT) on Monday, after hitting its lowest level since March 23 earlier in the session. The release on Friday of an unexpectedly strong U.S. employment report for May boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December while a fresh exchange of attacks between Israel and Iran sent oil prices higher, fueling inflation concerns. GOL/
Here are the key details:
Citi estimates that sustaining current prices requires physical gold purchases of about $900 billion a year, compared with a more typical "$250 billion to $400 billion annually over 2010–2024 in today's dollars."
The bank said that in a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through the end of the summer, gold buying could slow to around $700 billion to $750 billion annually, which could see prices retrace to the $3,500 per ounce level of nine to 10 months ago.
"The near-term risk skew therefore looks negative," the bank said in a note, adding that dip-buying would only make sense with a strong view of no re-escalation in geopolitical risks.
Citi maintained its longer-term bullish view on gold, but said the market is "extremely high-risk in the near-term" for investors without wide stops and longer investment horizons.
The bank still expects the gold price to eventually rebound when the Strait of Hormuz situation de-escalates, a base case it now sees happening in the third quarter. It kept its six-to-12-month price target unchanged at $5,000 per ounce.
