Earnings Update: Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE:CCL) Just Reported Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Carnival Corporation +0.06%

Carnival Corporation




Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE:CCL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.0% to US$16.34 in the week after its latest quarterly results. The results look positive overall; while revenues of US$5.4b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were 4.5% smaller than expected, with Carnival Corporation & losing US$0.17 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Carnival Corporation & after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Carnival Corporation &

NYSE:CCL Earnings and Revenue Growth March 29th 2024

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Carnival Corporation &'s 21 analysts is for revenues of US$24.5b in 2024. This would reflect a meaningful 8.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 193% to US$0.94. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$24.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.98 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$21.72, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Carnival Corporation &, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$27.50 and the most bearish at US$13.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. For example, we noticed that Carnival Corporation &'s rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 12% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 1.4% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 9.7% annually. So while Carnival Corporation &'s revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow at about the same rate as the overall industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Carnival Corporation &. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$21.72, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Carnival Corporation & going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Carnival Corporation & (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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