FACTBOX-Banks lower oil price forecasts after US-Iran deal
Jacobs Solutions Inc. J | 0.00 |
Updates with Morgan Stanley, Citi and Barclays
June 16 (Reuters) - Major investment banks including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citi have lowered their oil price forecasts after the U.S. and Iran signed a preliminary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit choke point.
Goldman Sachs lowered its fourth-quarter Brent crude oil price forecast to $80 from $90 and cut its 2027 average estimate to $75 from $80, adding it now assumes Gulf exports return to pre-war levels by the end of July rather than late August.
Morgan Stanley lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for the fourth quarter of this year by $15 per barrel to $80 and its third-quarter forecast to $90 from $100 earlier.
"We estimated that the ramp-up in production would start from late-July, which we now bring forward to mid-July. After that, we assume that 50% of lost production will be back by September, 80% by December, with the rest to follow in early 2027," Morgan Stanley said.
Citi cut its average Brent crude forecasts to $75 and $70 per barrel for the third and fourth quarters respectively.
Barclays, however, kept its $100 per barrel 2026 forecast for Brent, saying that while the Strait of Hormuz blockades might soon be in the rearview mirror, the effect on oil market fundamentals will not be clear for at least a few more weeks and could prove stickier than market participants currently expect.
Barclays sees a modest deficit in the third quarter, noting that inventories are already tight and continue to fall.
The table below lists price forecasts after the U.S.-Iran peace deal announcement:
Brokerage/Agency |
Brent |
WTI |
Forecasts as of |
Price Targets |
||
|
2026 |
2027 |
2026 |
2027 |
|
|
Goldman Sachs |
$85 ($90 previously) |
$75 ($80 previously) |
$80 ($85 previously) |
$70 ($75 previously) |
June 15, 2026 |
|
Morgan Stanley |
|
|
|
|
June 15, 2026 |
Lowers Brent forecasts to $90/bbl for Q3 2026 and $80/bbl for Q4 2026 |
Barclays |
$100 |
$88 |
$92 |
$85 |
June 16, 2026 |
Maintains $100/b forecast for Brent in 2026. |
Citi |
$81 |
$65 |
$76 |
$61 |
June 15, 2026 |
New quarterly oil price forecasts at 3Q26/4Q26/2027 $75/bbl, $70/bbl, and $65/bbl, respectively (down from $110/90/80/bbl) |
The following table contains price forecasts published before the U.S.-Iran peace agreement was announced:
Brokerage/Agency |
Brent |
WTI |
Forecasts as of |
Price Targets |
||
2026 |
2027 |
2026 |
2027 |
|||
ANZ |
$92 |
$76 |
$88 |
$76 |
April 9, 2026 |
|
UBS |
- |
- |
- |
- |
April 13, 2026 |
Expects prices to trade >$150/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted. Sees Brent at $100/bbl by end-June 2026, $95 by end-Sept, $90 by end-Dec |
Macquarie |
$89.28 |
$74.50 |
$82.93 |
$70.50 |
March 27 |
If the war continues until end of June, oil prices may rise to $200
|
J.P Morgan |
- |
$72 |
- |
- |
March 20, 2026 |
Expects Brent prices averaging $100/bbl in Q2'26, $90/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26 |
Standard Chartered |
$85.50 ($70 previously) |
|
|
|
|
Expects Brent to average $78/bbl in Q1'26, and $98/bbl in Q2'26 |
BofA |
$77.50 ($61 previously) |
$66 ($62 previously) |
- |
$61 ($59 previously) |
March 16, 2026 |
Expects Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2'26, but average $76/bbl in Q3'26 |
BMI |
$70 ($67 previously) |
$70 |
$68 |
$68 |
March 12, 2026 |
Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4'26, respectively. |
HSBC |
$80 ($65 previously) |
$70($66 previously) |
$76($61 previously) |
$67($63 previously) |
March 10, 2026 |
|