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FACTBOX-Brokerages slash S&P 500 annual targets, GDP forecasts after latest tariffs
Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.61%
S&P 500 index -0.67%
NASDAQ -1.00%
Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI | 41603.07 | -0.61% |
S&P 500 index SPX | 5802.82 | -0.67% |
NASDAQ IXIC | 18737.21 | -1.00% |
Updates with BofA, Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII), BMO and Oppenheimer S&P 500 target; WFII, BofA, Wells Fargo and Peel Hunt's 10-yr yield target; Peel Hunt and JPM's FX forecasts; Inflation forecasts for JPM, MS, WFII, Wells Fargo, Peel Hunt; GDP forecasts for Goldman, JPM, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, BofA, WFII, Citi, UBS Global Research and Peel Hunt
April 11 (Reuters) - Analysts expect U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs to weaken global economic growth, fuel volatility in global markets and raise inflationary pressures.
RBC Capital Markets and UBS Global Wealth Management have both slashed their year-end targets for the S&P 500 .SPX index Trump had announced the tariffs. RBC lowered its target to 5,550 from 6,200, while UBS cut to 5,800 from 6,400.
Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025.
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage |
S&P 500 target |
U.S. 10-year yield target |
EUR/USD |
USD/JPY |
USD/CNY |
UBS Global Research |
6400 |
4.25% |
1.12 |
150 |
7.60 |
Goldman Sachs |
5700 |
4.4% |
1.02 (next 12 months) |
152 (next 12 months) |
7.35 (next 12 months) |
UBS Global Wealth Management |
5800 |
4.00% |
1.12 |
145 |
7.50 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute |
5900-6100 |
4.00%-4.50% |
0.98-1.02 |
158-162 |
|
Societe Generale |
6750 |
4.50% (Q4'25) |
1.09 |
146.3 |
7.28 |
Deutsche Bank |
7000 |
4.7% (Q4'25) |
1.03 (Q4'25) |
7.50 |
|
Nomura |
4.25% |
1.03 |
135 |
6.93 |
|
Morgan Stanley |
6500 |
4% (Q4'25) |
1.08 (Q4'25) |
141 (Q4'25) |
7.60 (Q4'25) |
J.P.Morgan |
6500 |
4.10% (Q3'25) |
1.14 (Q4'25) |
140 (4Q'25) |
7.47 |
BofA Global Research |
5600 |
4.25% |
1.15 |
165 |
7.30 |
Wells Fargo |
3.96% |
0.98 (Q4'25) |
154 (Q4'25) |
7.60 (Q4'25) |
|
BMO Capital Markets |
6100 |
||||
Jefferies |
6000 |
4.43% |
|||
Barclays |
5900 |
4.00% (Q4'25) |
1.06 (Q4'25) |
144 (Q4'25) |
7.50 (Q4'25) |
Piper Sandler |
6600 |
||||
Berenberg |
4.90% |
1.10 |
140 |
7.30 |
|
BNP Paribas |
4.65% (Q4'25) |
1.00 (Q4'25) |
156 (Q4'25) |
||
Canaccord Genuity |
6325 |
||||
Citigroup |
6500 |
4.20% (Q4'25) |
1.05 |
139 |
|
ING |
1.02 |
160 |
7.35 |
||
HSBC |
6700 |
||||
Evercore ISI |
6800 |
||||
Peel Hunt |
4.20% |
1.11 (Q4'25) |
|||
RBC Capital Markets |
5550 |
4% |
|||
Oppenheimer Asset Management |
5950 |
U.S. Inflation:
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025) |
||
Brokerage |
Headline CPI |
Core PCE |
Goldman Sachs |
3.4% |
3.5% |
J.P.Morgan |
3.7% |
4.4% |
Morgan Stanley |
3.0% |
2.5% (Q4/Q4) |
Barclays |
3.1% |
2.5% |
Wells Fargo |
2.8% |
2.8% |
Societe Generale |
2.3% |
2.5% |
Deutsche Bank |
2.8% (Q4/Q4) |
2.6% (Q4/Q4) |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute |
3.5% |
|
UBS Global Wealth Management |
2.6% |
|
Citigroup |
2.7% |
2.6% |
BofA Global Research |
2.9% |
2.3% (Q4/Q4) |
Berenberg |
2.9% |
2.6% |
BNP Paribas |
2.3% |
|
Nomura |
3.0% |
4.7% |
ING |
2.4% |
|
Jefferies |
2.3% |
2.5% |
UBS Global Research |
2.7% |
|
Peel Hunt |
3.2% |
|
Real GDP Growth:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 |
||||||
Brokerage |
GLOBAL |
U.S. |
CHINA |
EURO AREA |
UK |
INDIA |
UBS Global Research |
3.0% |
2.0% |
4.0% |
0.5% |
0.7% |
6% (FY26) |
Goldman Sachs |
2.5% |
1.3% |
4.0% |
0.7% |
0.95% |
6.1% |
Barclays |
2.9% |
1.5% |
4.3% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
7.0% |
Morgan Stanley |
2.9% |
2.1% |
4.5% |
0.8% |
1.4% |
6.5% |
J.P.Morgan |
2.4% |
1.0% |
4.3% |
0.8% |
0.7% |
6.0% |
UBS Global Wealth Management |
2.9% |
1.9% |
4.0% |
0.9% |
1.5% |
6.3% |
Wells Fargo |
2.7% |
1.3% |
4.5% |
0.9% |
0.8% |
5.9% |
Societe Generale |
3.3% |
2.2% |
4.7% |
1.0% |
1.6% |
|
Citigroup |
2.3% |
1.4% |
4.2% |
0.8% |
2.0% |
6.7% |
Nomura |
2.9% |
2.2 |
4.5% |
1.1% |
1.0% |
5.8% |
BofA Global Research |
3.1% |
2.1% |
4.5% |
0.9% |
1.4% |
6.6% |
Deutsche Bank |
3.1% |
2.5% |
4.8% |
0.8% |
1% |
6.5% |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute |
2.1% |
1.0% |
0.9% |
|||
Berenberg |
2.8% |
2.6% |
5.0% |
1.0% |
0.9% |
6.5% |
BNP Paribas |
2.1% |
4.5% |
1.0% |
1.1% |
6.2% (March 2026) |
|
Peel Hunt |
1.5% |
4.5% |
0.9% |
1.1% |
6.3% |
|
ING |
2.0% |
4.6% |
0.7% |
1.4% |
||
Jefferies |
2.4% (Q4/Q4) |
|||||
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Anil D'Silva, Tasim Zahid, Rashmi Aich, Shounak Dasgupta, Vijay Kishore and Krishna Chandra Eluri)
((Siddarth.s@thomsonreuters.com))
