FACTBOX-Goldman Sachs lifts oil price forecasts on weaker Middle East output
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS | 0.00 |
Adds latest estimates from Goldman Sachs and Citi
April 27 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil prices for the fourth quarter of 2026, citing lower oil production from the Middle East.
The bank estimated that Brent crude prices will average $90 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will be at $83 in the final quarter of 2026.
Goldman projected that exports through the Strait of Hormuz will normalise by the end of June, later than its previous estimate of mid-May, alongside a slower recovery in Gulf oil production.
Citi has raised its Brent oil price outlook for the remainder of 2026, with its base case forecast at $110, $95 and $80 a barrel for the second, third and fourth quarter of 2026, respectively.
Under a bull-case scenario, the bank assumes oil flows through the strait remain disrupted through the end of June and sees Brent prices spiking to $150 a barrel.
Oil edged higher on Monday as U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained constrained, keeping global supplies tight. O/R
Brokerage/Agency |
Brent |
WTI |
Forecasts as of |
Price Targets |
||
|
2026 |
2027 |
2026 |
2027 |
|
|
Goldman Sachs |
$90 ($83 previously) |
$85 ($80 previously) |
$83 ($78 previously) |
$80($75 previously) |
April 26, 2026 |
Raises 4Q 2026 Brent, WTI forecast to $90/$83 |
Citi |
$91 |
$75 |
$83 |
$70 |
April 26, 2026 |
Raises Brent price forecast to $110/bbl in Q2'26, $95/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26 |
ANZ |
$92 |
$76 |
$88 |
$76 |
April 9, 2026 |
|
UBS |
- |
- |
- |
- |
April 13, 2026 |
Expects prices to trade >$150/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted. Sees Brent at $100/bbl by end-June 2026, $95 by end-Sept, $90 by end-Dec |
Macquarie |
$89.28 |
$74.50 |
$82.93 |
$70.50 |
March 27 |
If the war continues until end of June, oil prices may rise to $200
|
Morgan Stanley |
- |
$80 ($70 previously) |
- |
- |
March 24, 2026 |
Expects Brent prices to remain above $80/bbl for the rest of 2026 |
J.P Morgan |
- |
$72 |
- |
- |
March 20, 2026 |
Expects Brent prices averaging $100/bbl in Q2'26, $90/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26 |
Standard Chartered |
$85.50 ($70 previously) |
|
|
|
|
Expects Brent to average $78/bbl in Q1'26, and $98/bbl in Q2'26 |
BofA |
$77.50 ($61 previously) |
$66 ($62 previously) |
- |
$61 ($59 previously) |
March 16, 2026 |
Expects Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2'26, but average $76/bbl in Q3'26 |
Barclays |
$85 (from $65 previously) The forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz normalises in 2-3 weeks |
- |
- |
- |
March 13, 2026 |
But if the Strait of Hormuz takes 4-6 weeks to normalise, says Brent could climb to $100/bbl |
BMI |
$70 ($67 previously) |
$70 |
$68 |
$68 |
March 12, 2026 |
Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4'26, respectively. |
HSBC |
$80 ($65 previously) |
$70($66 previously) |
$76($61 previously) |
$67($63 previously) |
March 10, 2026 |
|