Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key financial metrics. Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. In light of that, when we looked at Hub Group (NASDAQ:HUBG) and its ROCE trend, we weren't exactly thrilled.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. The formula for this calculation on Hub Group is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.062 = US$138m ÷ (US$2.8b - US$618m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

So, Hub Group has an ROCE of 6.2%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Logistics industry average of 16%.

In the above chart we have measured Hub Group's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Hub Group .

The Trend Of ROCE

On the surface, the trend of ROCE at Hub Group doesn't inspire confidence. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 11%, but since then they've fallen to 6.2%. And considering revenue has dropped while employing more capital, we'd be cautious. This could mean that the business is losing its competitive advantage or market share, because while more money is being put into ventures, it's actually producing a lower return - "less bang for their buck" per se.

The Bottom Line On Hub Group's ROCE

In summary, we're somewhat concerned by Hub Group's diminishing returns on increasing amounts of capital. But investors must be expecting an improvement of sorts because over the last five yearsthe stock has delivered a respectable 94% return. In any case, the current underlying trends don't bode well for long term performance so unless they reverse, we'd start looking elsewhere.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.