REFILE-LIVE MARKETS-US AI hyperscaler capex growth views up since start of Q4 earnings
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Adjusts q4 in headline to Q4
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US AI HYPERSCALER CAPEX GROWTH VIEWS UP SINCE START OF Q4 EARNINGS
Estimates for U.S. artificial intelligence hyperscaler capital expenditures are up since the start of the fourth-quarter reporting period, with consensus views now showing hyperscaler capex growing to $667 billion in 2026, up 62% from $412 billion for 2025, according to Goldman Sachs strategists.
At the start of the earnings season, analysts had expected the hyperscalers would spend $540 billion on capex in 2026, the strategists write in a note this week.
But while Goldman Sachs expects some further upside to these capex estimates this year, they see capex growth peaking later this year.
"Hyperscaler capex is now on pace to exceed 90% of cash flows this year, above the share during the Dot Com Boom," they write. "Our previous upside capex scenario equaled roughly $700 billion. However, even in that outcome, a deceleration in the quarterly growth rate is likely in late 2026."
They note that revenue growth and valuations of some AI infrastructure stocks could be vulnerable to a slowdown in capex growth.
In order to fund capex plans, the hyperscalers have cut buybacks and issued debt, Goldman strategists write.
"In recent weeks, the AI trade has been upended by large capex surprises and investor focus on the risk of disruption," they note.
Hyperscalers include companies that have the capability to build, own, and operate massive data centers.
(Caroline Valetkevitch)
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