Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$2.5b arriving 4.6% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$2.72, 5.6% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 15 analysts covering Toll Brothers is for revenues of US$10.7b in 2026. This implies a perceptible 2.7% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 7.2% to US$12.76 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$10.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.71 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$164, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Toll Brothers, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$187 and the most bearish at US$115 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Toll Brothers' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.3% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 5.5% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.0% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Toll Brothers' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$164, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Toll Brothers. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Toll Brothers analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Toll Brothers' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.