Rewrites paragraph 1, adds comments from call in paragraph 5 and 7; adds shares

By Mariam Sunny and Michael Erman

Feb 26 (Reuters) - Novavax NVAX.O raised its adjusted revenue forecast for 2026 on Thursday, banking on milestone payments from licensing and supply deals for its shots, although it noted that the current regulatory environment posed a risk for vaccine companies.

The company's upbeat forecast and strong results sent its shares soaring more than 19% in early trading. It swung to a profit from a year-earlier loss as cost cuts and licensing deals helped cushion the blow from restrictive U.S. recommendations for COVID-19 shots.

A sharp shift in U.S. vaccine policy under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a long-time anti-vaccine activist, has prompted major health agencies to revise their approach to oversight and overhaul long-standing immunization schedules , leading to falling vaccination rates.

Talking on a post-earnings call, Novavax CEO John Jacobs expressed concern over the regulatory climate in the U.S.

"The current macro and regulatory environment in the United States poses some significant uncertainties for vaccine companies," Jacobs said, but added that he remained optimistic about the future of vaccines and of Novavax.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration initially refused to review rival Moderna's MRNA.O mRNA-based flu vaccine, then reversed course a week later after the company amended its application.

"We're encouraged by Moderna's progress with their flu vaccine ... We're also hearing from the current administration that they believe in vaccines and want them to move forward," Jacobs said.

The biotech now expects 2026 adjusted revenue of between $230 million and $270 million, up from its prior forecast of between $185 million and $205 million. Those numbers exclude sales and royalties from its partnership with Sanofi SASY.PA.

Novavax expects to reach profitability by 2028, backed by key launches from its deal with Sanofi.

Last month, Novavax licensed its Matrix-M adjuvant, which improves the body's response to vaccines, to Pfizer PFE.N for up to $530 million.

Novavax's fourth-quarter revenue rose 67% to $147 million, topping analysts' average estimates of $78.84 million, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Net income for the quarter was $18 million, compared with a net loss of $81 million a year earlier.