UPDATE 1-US natural gas futures rise as output drops and heat drives demand
U.S. Global Investors, Inc. Class A GROW | 0.00 | |
Exxon Mobil XOM | 0.00 |
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, June 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 1.5% on Wednesday on forecasts for warmer weather into mid-June and recent declines in output.
Front-month gas futures for July delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.7 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $3.214 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has dropped to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from 109.7 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
AMPLE GAS IN STORAGE
Analysts said mild weather allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual during the spring.
But they noted recent output declines likely reduced the surplus of gas in inventories to around 5.9% above normal during the week ended May 29, down from 6.2% above normal in the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 18, which should boost demand for gas from power generators to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. electricity generation comes from gas-fired power plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 98.3 bcfd this week to 99.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from 17.1 bcfd in May to 16.3 bcfd so far in June due to ongoing spring maintenance at several plants, including ExxonMobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass facility and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
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Week ended May 29 Forecast |
Week ended May 22 Actual |
Year ago May 29 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) May 29 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+101 |
+92 |
+119 |
+101 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,584 |
2,483 |
2,581 |
2,440 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+5.9% |
+6.2% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.23 |
3.17 |
3.64 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
16.75 |
16.31 |
12.38 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
18.61 |
18.68 |
13.05 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
8 |
8 |
20 |
20 |
22 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
172 |
170 |
138 |
138 |
133 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
180 |
178 |
158 |
158 |
155 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.8 |
109.8 |
110.1 |
105.8 |
100.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
6.5 |
6.6 |
6.3 |
N/A |
7.7 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
116.3 |
116.4 |
116.4 |
N/A |
108.3 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.6 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.5 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
N/A |
6.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.1 |
16.6 |
16.8 |
13.9 |
12.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
5.0 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
U.S. Residential |
4.5 |
4.2 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
U.S. Power Plant |
34.4 |
34.5 |
36.1 |
35.3 |
39.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.7 |
21.7 |
21.6 |
22.3 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
73.0 |
72.5 |
73.6 |
73.8 |
78.5 |
Total U.S. Demand |
100.2 |
98.3 |
99.9 |
N/A |
99.5 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
89 |
89 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
93 |
93 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
97 |
97 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended Jun 5 |
Week ended May 29 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
12 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
11 |
10 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
8 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
37 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
13 |
14 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
20 |
20 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.97 |
3.07 |
3.12 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
1.89 |
1.90 |
2.34 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.66 |
1.63 |
3.12 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
1.87 |
1.85 |
2.17 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.64 |
2.65 |
2.76 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
2.01 |
2.30 |
2.97 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
2.65 |
2.41 |
3.59 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
-1.58 |
-1.95 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.32 |
1.30 |
0.64 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
48.92 |
44.24 |
60.18 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
41.65 |
35.24 |
70.06 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
9.24 |
22.11 |
42.59 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
17.20 |
24.75 |
38.53 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
7.00 |
7.93 |
22.51 |
28.44 |
53.02 |