UPDATE 1-US natural gas futures rise to one-week high as output falls, LNG flows rise
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Monday to a one-week high, on a decline in output and an increase in flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.9 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $3.245 per million British thermal units, their highest close since June 29.
In a sign the market is not too worried about gas supplies in coming months, the premium of futures for August over September NGQ26-U26 rose to a record high of around 12 cents per mmBtu, while the premium of futures for March over April 2027 NGH27-J27 fell to a record low of around 18 cents.
The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow-maker" because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business. Notably, the Amaranth hedge fund lost more than $6 billion in 2006.
Traders use the March-April NGH27-J27 and October-November NGV26-X26 spreads to bet on winter weather forecasts and supply and demand. March is the last month of the winter heating season when utilities pull gas out of storage, and October is the last month of the summer cooling season when utilities inject gas into storage.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, down from 110.0 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts said mostly mild weather during the spring allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual.
They projected the amount of gas in inventories would hold around 6.4% above normal during the week ended July 3, similar to the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Even though meteorologists forecast less heat next week than this week, they said the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through July 21, which should keep the amount of gas power generators burn for air conditioning high. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 110.3 bcfd this week and next. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday before the long U.S. July 4 holiday weekend.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.1 bcfd so far in July, up from 17.4 bcfd in June but still below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
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Week ended Jul 3 Forecast |
Week ended Jun 26 Actual |
Year ago Jun 26 |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jun 26 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
+52 |
+87 |
+53 |
+51 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
2,974 |
2,922 |
2,998 |
2,798 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+6.3% |
+6.4% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.19 |
3.20 |
3.30 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
14.99 |
15.06 |
9.98 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
16.08 |
16.02 |
12.53 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
2 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
234 |
245 |
217 |
209 |
197 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
236 |
247 |
221 |
211 |
203 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
110.5 |
109.1 |
109.3 |
106.2 |
101.4 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
7.2 |
7.1 |
6.9 |
N/A |
8.2 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
117.7 |
116.2 |
116.2 |
N/A |
109.6 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
N/A |
2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
7.2 |
7.0 |
7.2 |
N/A |
6.6 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
17.8 |
17.7 |
17.9 |
15.8 |
11.0 |
U.S. Commercial |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
U.S. Residential |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant |
41.1 |
46.1 |
45.7 |
46.4 |
46.1 |
U.S. Industrial |
21.7 |
21.6 |
21.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
78.3 |
83.3 |
82.9 |
84.1 |
84.9 |
Total U.S. Demand |
105.5 |
110.3 |
110.3 |
N/A |
104.8 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
83 |
84 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
89 |
89 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
93 |
94 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended July 10 |
Week ended July 3 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
7 |
13 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
9 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
42 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
19 |
17 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
18 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
3.34 |
3.38 |
3.20 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.69 |
2.71 |
2.87 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
1.24 |
1.17 |
3.45 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.51 |
2.52 |
2.61 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.72 |
2.78 |
2.95 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
3.53 |
4.73 |
4.50 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
1.89 |
1.93 |
3.70 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
0.80 |
0.68 |
1.57 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
0.95 |
0.93 |
0.51 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
53.00 |
242.94 |
89.06 |
77.12 |
61.67 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
79.42 |
365.85 |
87.25 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX |
38.37 |
13.51 |
52.17 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
38.16 |
16.75 |
48.82 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX |
17.72 |
3.83 |
33.95 |
28.44 |
53.02 |