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What Does History Tell Us About Saudi Stock Market Trends During Ramadan?
Utilities +0.46%
Banks -1.43%
Media & Entertainment -0.89%
Telecommunication Svc -1.32%
Transportation +0.21%
Utilities TUTI.SA | 11544.90 | +0.46% |
Banks TBNI.SA | 12752.78 | -1.43% |
Media & Entertainment TMDI.SA | 21729.69 | -0.89% |
Telecommunication Svc TTSI.SA | 8587.54 | -1.32% |
Transportation TTNI.SA | 6350.92 | +0.21% |
Introduction
As the 2025 Ramadan approaches, which is projected to begin on March 1, 2025, according to The Umm al-Qura Calendar of Saudi Arabia, investors often wonder how the Saudi stock market will perform during this significant period.
We’ve compiled historical data on the performance of the Tadawul All Shares Index(TASI.SA), and various sector indices during Ramadan from 2016 to 2024.
Note: The comprehensive dataset covering both TASI and sector indices begins from 2016, which serves as our starting point for this analysis.
1. TASI Performance During Ramadan (2016-2024)
- Data Coverage: Historical performance from 2016 to 2024 shows mixed but notable trends.
- Average Movement: Over the period, TASI rose in 8 out of 9 years, with an average gain of 3.27% during Ramadan.
- Volatility Alert: Sharp swings observed (e.g., -7.22% in 2019 vs. +8.06% in 2017).
| Beginning of Ramadan | Performance of TASI Index (%) |
| 2016-06-06 | ▲ 1.35 |
| 2017-05-27 | ▲ 8.06 |
| 2018-05-16 | ▲ 2.88 |
| 2019-05-06 | ▼ -7.22 |
| 2020-04-24 | ▲ 6.75 |
| 2021-04-13 | ▲ 4.19 |
| 2022-04-02 | ▲ 4.92 |
| 2023-03-23 | ▲ 7.86 |
| 2024-03-11 | ▲ 0.69 |
| 2025-03-01（Projected Start Date） | ？ |
2. Sector Spotlight:
Table version:
| Sector | Average Changes in Ramadan from 2016-2024 (%) | Number of Positive Years (out of 9 years) | Ramadan (%) | Ramadan (%) | Ramadan (%) | Ramadan (%) | Ramadan (%) | Ramadan (%) | Ramadan (%) | Ramadan (%) | Ramadan (%) |
| Utilities Index(TUTI.SA) | 4.95 | 7 | 16.58 | 10.61 | 3.35 | -2.34 | 2.06 | 1.50 | 4.75 | 9.89 | -1.86 |
| Banks Index(TBNI.SA) | 4.48 | 7 | 0.63 | 6.72 | 10.40 | 5.51 | 7.75 | -7.48 | 5.24 | 13.35 | -1.83 |
| Media & Entertainment Index(TMDI.SA) | 3.70 | 6 | 1.39 | 9.20 | 4.63 | 11.56 | 1.53 | 14.33 | -2.64 | -5.00 | -1.70 |
| Commercial & Professional Svc Index(TCPI.SA) | 3.69 | 6 | -9.23 | 14.21 | 5.17 | 3.14 | 4.19 | -1.84 | 6.02 | -0.75 | 12.29 |
| Financial Services Index(TDFI.SA) | 3.65 | 5 | 10.89 | 15.99 | 2.17 | -2.71 | 0.74 | -4.36 | -0.09 | -1.57 | 11.79 |
| Health Care Equipment & Svc Index(THEI.SA) | 3.28 | 6 | 0.86 | 10.32 | 8.19 | 10.12 | 8.68 | -3.35 | -0.23 | 5.64 | -10.71 |
| Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail Index(TFSI.SA) | 3.04 | 6 | -4.29 | 7.86 | 2.17 | 2.04 | 24.39 | -2.48 | 2.77 | 6.43 | -11.56 |
| Energy Index(TENI.SA) | 2.76 | 7 | -5.78 | 8.95 | 3.97 | 0.60 | 8.13 | -4.55 | 7.41 | 3.04 | 3.06 |
| Food & Beverages Index(TFBI.SA) | 2.74 | 5 | -2.70 | 9.35 | -0.28 | 1.12 | 2.55 | -6.02 | -0.85 | 18.95 | 2.54 |
| Real Estate Mgmt & Dev't Index(TRMI.SA) | 2.14 | 6 | 6.94 | 11.38 | 1.57 | 8.64 | -3.70 | -7.50 | -5.32 | 6.37 | 0.89 |
| Materials Index(TMTI.SA) | 1.81 | 6 | 5.65 | 6.10 | -2.34 | 4.70 | 9.40 | -7.61 | 3.56 | 2.68 | -5.81 |
| Software & Svc Index(TSSI.SA) | 0.81 | 3 | -2.36 | 4.07 | 14.21 | -8.50 | 6.32 | -6.41 | - | - | - |
| Consumer Durables & Apparel Index(TDAI.SA) | 0.20 | 4 | -2.55 | 11.79 | -4.38 | 0.37 | 7.05 | -5.27 | -7.41 | -1.15 | 3.38 |
| Pharma\, Biotech & Life Science Index(TPBI.SA) | -0.30 | 5 | -5.01 | 5.24 | -3.49 | 6.10 | 5.00 | -5.54 | 2.73 | 1.14 | -8.89 |
| Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail Index(TRLI.SA) | -0.32 | 3 | -3.87 | 7.24 | -3.60 | 7.12 | -4.60 | -6.36 | -1.68 | 4.53 | -1.68 |
| Capital Goods Index(TCGI.SA) | -0.42 | 3 | -4.38 | 9.35 | -0.71 | 8.30 | 7.32 | -7.84 | -2.37 | -1.11 | -12.34 |
| Insurance Index(TISI.SA) | -0.94 | 4 | 2.13 | 8.61 | -6.42 | -1.81 | 4.80 | -7.98 | -5.43 | 3.77 | -6.15 |
| Telecommunication Svc Index(TTSI.SA) | -1.25 | 4 | -9.27 | 4.73 | -0.90 | 2.25 | 9.51 | -6.88 | 1.33 | -3.18 | -8.80 |
| Transportation Index(TTNI.SA) | -1.25 | 4 | -9.27 | 4.73 | -0.90 | 2.25 | 9.51 | -6.88 | 1.33 | -3.18 | -8.80 |
Top Historical Performers
The below sectors showed consistent strength during Ramadan periods (2016–2024):
| Sector | Average Change | Positive Years | Notable Trends |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities Index(TUTI.SA) | 4.95% | 7/9 years | Led gains in 2023 (+10.61%) and 2017 (+9.89%) |
| Banks Index(TBNI.SA) | 4.48% | 7/9 years | Impressive 18.95% surge in 2021 |
| Media & Entertainment Index(TMDI.SA) | 3.70% | 6/9 years | Volatile but resilient: 14.33% in 2019 vs. 1.39% in 2024 |
Sectors with Mixed Results
- Media & Entertainment Index(TMDI.SA) (Avg. 3.70%): High volatility (e.g., -5.00% in 2017 vs. +14.33% in 2019).
- Telecommunication Svc Index(TTSI.SA) & Transportation Index(TTNI.SA), (Avg. -1.25%): Declined in 5 out of 9 years, with losses up to -9.27% in 2024.
3. Why This Matters for Investors
- Historical Patterns: While past performance does not guarantee future results, sectors like Utilities Index(TUTI.SA) and Banks Index(TBNI.SA) have shown relative consistency during Ramadan.
- Diversification Opportunity: Consider sectors with high "positive year" counts to balance volatility.
- Timing Insight: As we approach Ramadan 2025, market participants can monitor these sectors to see if historical patterns continue or if new trends emerge in response to current market conditions.
4. The Bottom Line
The data provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct independent research or consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions. Market conditions, geopolitical events, and macroeconomic factors may override historical patterns.
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