Shareholders might have noticed that ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.2% to US$22.99 in the past week. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of CN¥11.19 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of CN¥13b came in 3.8% ahead of analyst predictions. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from ZTO Express (Cayman)'s 21 analysts is for revenues of CN¥57.2b in 2026. This would reflect a solid 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 9.3% to CN¥13.15. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥55.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥12.86 in 2026. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$29.08, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on ZTO Express (Cayman), with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$32.46 and the most bearish at US$23.06 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting ZTO Express (Cayman)'s growth to accelerate, with the forecast 15% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 12% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that ZTO Express (Cayman) is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards ZTO Express (Cayman) following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$29.08, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ZTO Express (Cayman). Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for ZTO Express (Cayman) going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.