Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:KOF)

Coca-Cola FEMSA SAB de CV Sponsored ADR Class L -2.40% Pre

Coca-Cola FEMSA SAB de CV Sponsored ADR Class L

KOF

94.79

94.79

-2.40%

0.00% Pre

Key Insights

  • Coca-Cola FEMSA. de's estimated fair value is US$114 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Coca-Cola FEMSA. de's US$94.64 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
  • The Mex$88.93 analyst price target for KOF is 22% less than our estimate of fair value

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:KOF) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Coca-Cola FEMSA. de

The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (MX$, Millions) Mex$20.0b Mex$23.3b Mex$24.0b Mex$26.0b Mex$27.4b Mex$28.7b Mex$29.9b Mex$30.9b Mex$31.8b Mex$32.7b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ 5.76% Est @ 4.70% Est @ 3.95% Est @ 3.43% Est @ 3.07% Est @ 2.81%
Present Value (MX$, Millions) Discounted @ 8.5% Mex$18.4k Mex$19.7k Mex$18.8k Mex$18.7k Mex$18.2k Mex$17.6k Mex$16.8k Mex$16.1k Mex$15.2k Mex$14.4k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = Mex$174b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.5%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = Mex$33b× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (8.5%– 2.2%) = Mex$530b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= Mex$530b÷ ( 1 + 8.5%)10= Mex$234b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is Mex$408b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$94.6, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
NYSE:KOF Discounted Cash Flow December 30th 2023

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Coca-Cola FEMSA. de as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Coca-Cola FEMSA. de

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Beverage market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Coca-Cola FEMSA. de, we've compiled three pertinent factors you should further examine:

  1. Financial Health: Does KOF have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does KOF's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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