Textron Inc.'s (NYSE:TXT) Stock Is Going Strong: Have Financials A Role To Play?

Textron Inc. -0.96% Pre

Textron Inc.

TXT

93.06

93.06

-0.96%

0.00% Pre

Textron (NYSE:TXT) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 5.3% over the last month. We wonder if and what role the company's financials play in that price change as a company's long-term fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Textron's ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

Check out our latest analysis for Textron

How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Textron is:

13% = US$949m ÷ US$7.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.13 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Textron's Earnings Growth And 13% ROE

At first glance, Textron seems to have a decent ROE. Further, the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 13%. As you might expect, the 3.1% net income decline reported by Textron is a bit of a surprise. We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that are preventing the company's growth. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

However, when we compared Textron's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 5.4% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:TXT Past Earnings Growth December 29th 2023

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Has the market priced in the future outlook for TXT? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Textron Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Textron's low three-year median payout ratio of 2.3% (or a retention ratio of 98%) over the last three years should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings to fuel its growth but the company's earnings have actually shrunk. The low payout should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings and consequently, should see some growth. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

In addition, Textron has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 2.0%. However, Textron's ROE is predicted to rise to 16% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.

Summary

In total, it does look like Textron has some positive aspects to its business. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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