BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) has drawn investor attention recently as its share price shows mixed shorter term performance, with a small 1 day gain alongside negative moves over the past month and past 3 months.

At a share price of US$6.79, BioCryst’s recent 7 day share price return of 1.95% contrasts with a 30 day share price decline of 11.82%. Meanwhile, the 1 year total shareholder return of an 11.13% decline and the 3 year total shareholder return of a 35.82% decline point to fading momentum and shifting views on the company’s risk and growth profile.

If BioCryst’s moves have you reassessing the sector, it could be a useful moment to scan other healthcare stocks that might fit your criteria.

With revenue of US$599.816m, a small net loss of US$8.779m and a share price sitting at US$6.79 against an analyst target of US$20.50, is BioCryst undervalued or already pricing in its future growth potential?

Most Popular Narrative: 66.9% Undervalued

With BioCryst Pharmaceuticals last closing at $6.79 and the most followed narrative pointing to fair value at $20.50, the gap between price and narrative expectations is wide and centers heavily on ORLADEYO and the rare disease pipeline.

Strong and sustainable revenue growth for ORLADEYO, supported by increasing new patient prescriptions, expanding prescriber base, and robust retention rates, positions BioCryst to capitalize on the rising prevalence and earlier diagnosis of rare diseases, likely driving sustained top-line expansion and improved profit margins.

Anticipated approval and launch of new indications such as ORLADEYO granules for pediatric patients and expanded use in HAE with normal C1 inhibitor broadens the addressable market in an environment of growing global healthcare spending on rare disease therapies, which should further increase long-term revenues and earnings visibility.

Curious how that growth story gets translated into a $20.50 value per share? The narrative leans on rising rare disease revenues, expanding margins, and a future profit multiple that assumes investors will pay up for this earnings profile. Want to see which growth and profitability assumptions sit underneath that number?

Result: Fair Value of $20.50 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on ORLADEYO remaining resilient against new HAE competitors, as well as the early stage pipeline avoiding delays or setbacks that could unsettle those expectations.

Build Your Own BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If this narrative does not quite match your view, or you prefer to rely on your own research and assumptions, you can build a complete version yourself in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your BioCryst Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.