W.W. Grainger (GWW) is back in focus after its fourth quarter 2025 report. Sales of US$4.43b topped market expectations and management paired the update with a detailed 2026 outlook.

Grainger shares have climbed recently, with a 7 day share price return of 9.33% and a 30 day move of 14.98%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 14.20% and 5 year total shareholder return of 232.74% point to momentum that has built over time, despite a 1 day share price decline of 0.99% to US$1,183.15 as investors weigh the new earnings and 2026 guidance against legal headlines and the latest dividend affirmation.

If this earnings update has you looking beyond a single industrial distributor, it could be a good time to broaden your search with our 22 top founder-led companies as potential long term compounders.

With earnings guidance now on the table, a fresh dividend affirmation and the stock trading above the average analyst price target, the real question is whether Grainger still offers an attractive entry point or if markets are already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 12.3% Overvalued

Compared with the latest close at $1,183.15, the most followed narrative pegs W.W. Grainger’s fair value at $1,053.47, using an 8.07% discount rate and detailed cash flow assumptions.

The acceleration of digital transformation in B2B/industrial commerce is expanding the addressable market for Grainger's online platforms (especially Zoro and MonotaRO). This is described as driving faster than industry top line gains, operating leverage, and margin expansion as ecommerce penetration rises.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is baked into that price gap? The narrative leans heavily on steady revenue growth, resilient margins, and a richer earnings multiple a few years out. It connects those assumptions to a detailed cash flow path that underpins the fair value estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $1,053.47 (OVERVALUED)

However, that story can change quickly if inflation-linked cost pressures linger or if a muted MRO market continues to weigh on revenue and margin assumptions.

Build Your Own W.W. Grainger Narrative

If you are not fully aligned with this view or simply prefer to lean on your own research, you can build a personalised Grainger story in just a few minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your W.W. Grainger research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.