Ashland Inc. (NYSE:ASH) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.415 per share on the 15th of March. The dividend yield will be 2.6% based on this payment which is still above the industry average.

Estimates Indicate Ashland's Dividend Coverage Likely To Improve

We like to see robust dividend yields, but that doesn't matter if the payment isn't sustainable. While Ashland is not profitable, it is paying out less than 75% of its free cash flow, which means that there is plenty left over for reinvestment into the business. This gives us some comfort about the level of the dividend payments.

Analysts expect a massive rise in earnings per share in the next year. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio will be 2.3%, which makes us pretty comfortable with the sustainability of the dividend.

Dividend Volatility

The company has a long dividend track record, but it doesn't look great with cuts in the past. The dividend has gone from an annual total of $1.56 in 2016 to the most recent total annual payment of $1.66. Its dividends have grown at less than 1% per annum over this time frame. Modest growth in the dividend is good to see, but we think this is offset by historical cuts to the payments. It is hard to live on a dividend income if the company's earnings are not consistent.

Dividend Growth Potential Is Shaky

With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to evaluate if earnings per share is growing, which could point to a growing dividend in the future. Over the past five years, it looks as though Ashland's EPS has declined at around 43% a year. This steep decline can indicate that the business is going through a tough time, which could constrain its ability to pay a larger dividend each year in the future. It's not all bad news though, as the earnings are predicted to rise over the next 12 months - we would just be a bit cautious until this becomes a long term trend.

The Dividend Could Prove To Be Unreliable

Overall, we don't think this company makes a great dividend stock, even though the dividend wasn't cut this year. The company is generating plenty of cash, which could maintain the dividend for a while, but the track record hasn't been great. We would probably look elsewhere for an income investment.

Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. Is Ashland not quite the opportunity you were looking for? Why not check out our selection of top dividend stocks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.