CF Industries Holdings (CF) is drawing fresh attention after launching a low carbon fertilizer pilot with POET and several major farm cooperatives, tying its nitrogen products directly to cleaner corn and ethanol production.

These low carbon efforts sit alongside recent shareholder friendly moves, such as the declared US$0.50 per share dividend payable in late February 2026, and come after a recent analyst reassessment that kept CF Industries Holdings in more of a wait and see category for some observers. Despite a 3.6% one day share price pullback and softer 7 day return, the share price is up around 15% over the past month and almost 14% year to date. Total shareholder return sits at about 11% over one year and roughly 136% over five years, suggesting long term holders have seen stronger rewards even as short term momentum has cooled and then picked up again.

If CF’s low carbon push has you thinking about where else the energy transition might create opportunities, you may want to scan our list of 87 nuclear energy infrastructure stocks as a next step.

With CF trading near its average analyst price target and showing an intrinsic discount estimate of about 8%, the key question is whether the recent run and low carbon story leave any mispricing, or whether markets already reflect future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 30% Undervalued

With CF Industries Holdings last closing at $91.32 versus a narrative fair value of about $91.61, the widely followed model still sees a sizeable valuation gap once projected cash flows are discounted at 7.86%.

While carbon capture and blue/green ammonia projects are expected to deliver incremental EBITDA from tax credits and product premiums, heavy reliance on government incentives and early-stage clean ammonia markets introduces long-term regulatory and adoption risks, threatening the stability of projected future cash flows and margins.

Curious how an earnings profile that trends lower, shrinking margins and a higher future P/E multiple can still support that gap to fair value? The narrative walks through the revenue path, profit assumptions and discounting that tie those moving parts together, and shows how much of the price hinges on buybacks doing the heavy lifting.

Result: Fair Value of $91.61 (UNDERVALUED)

However, if tighter nitrogen markets ease or clean ammonia incentives change, pricing could come under pressure, margins could shrink faster than expected, and the current undervalued narrative could be challenged.

Build Your Own CF Industries Holdings Narrative

If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion or simply want to test your own assumptions, you can build a custom CF Industries Holdings story in just a few minutes and see how your view compares, Do it your way

A great starting point for your CF Industries Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If CF has sharpened your focus, do not stop here, as the most interesting opportunities often sit just outside your current watchlist.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.