Essent Group: recent performance snapshot

Essent Group (ESNT) has caught investor attention after a solid recent run, with the stock closing at $65.64 and showing positive returns over the past week, month, past 3 months, and year to date.

The recent 11.56% 1 month share price return and 6.87% 3 month share price return sit alongside a 1 year total shareholder return of 15.75% and a 5 year total shareholder return of 67.02%, which together indicate momentum that has been building over a multi year period.

If Essent Group’s move has you thinking about where else returns could be building, it might be a good time to scan our 23 top founder-led companies.

With Essent Group trading at $65.64, showing a 53.59% intrinsic discount and sitting about 4.5% below the average analyst target, investors may question whether there is still a buying opportunity or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 4.3% Undervalued

With Essent Group closing at $65.64 against a narrative fair value of $68.63, the most followed storyline sees a modest gap still open between price and potential.

The analysts are assuming Essent Group's revenue will grow by 2.0% annually over the next 3 years.

Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 56.4% today to 51.9% in 3 years time.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what keeps that fair value just ahead of today’s price? The narrative leans on steady top line growth, resilient margins, and a future earnings multiple that sits below many peers. The full set of revenue, earnings and valuation assumptions is where the story really gets interesting.

Result: Fair Value of $68.63 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that story could shift if housing affordability stays tight, or if alternative credit models and fintech underwriting start to erode traditional mortgage insurance demand.

Build Your Own Essent Group Narrative

If you see Essent Group’s story differently or prefer to test the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes by starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Essent Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.