BlackSky Technology (BKSY) has landed a multi-year contract worth over $30 million to deliver advanced Gen-3 tactical ISR services to an international defense client. This move signals growing demand for its AI-powered space intelligence technology.

Even with the headline-grabbing contract win, BlackSky’s short-term share price has seen sharp swings, including a 19.98% slide over the past month and a steep 12.44% drop in the past week. However, momentum is clearly building in the bigger picture, with the 1-year total shareholder return of 197.23% highlighting robust long-term gains and renewed confidence in the company’s trajectory.

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With this recent volatility and a string of bold contract wins, investors are left weighing whether BlackSky’s impressive long-term performance means the stock remains undervalued or if the market has already priced in future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 25% Undervalued

With BlackSky Technology's narrative fair value set at $27.29 per share, much higher than the current close of $20.42, the crowd sees major upside if the company hits its strategic milestones and growth forecasts.

The ramp-up of the Gen-3 satellite constellation, coupled with demonstrated high performance and lower costs, is creating strong demand and contract expansion (especially once general availability launches in Q4). This is likely to drive a step-function increase in recurring imagery and analytics revenues in 2025 and beyond.

What’s behind these rosy projections? The narrative leans hard on explosive revenue growth and a dramatic shift in profitability. Want to uncover which bold financial assumptions power this high fair value? Don’t miss the jump into the full story.

Result: Fair Value of $27.29 (UNDERVALUED)

However, continued government budget uncertainty and unpredictable contract conversions could quickly challenge even the most optimistic outlook for BlackSky’s rapid growth trajectory.

Build Your Own BlackSky Technology Narrative

If you’re driven to dig into the numbers yourself or want to shape a unique perspective, it’s easy to craft your own analysis in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your BlackSky Technology research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.