Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Afya Limited (NASDAQ:AFYA)?

Afya Limited -0.98%

Afya Limited

AFYA

14.16

-0.98%

With its stock down 3.9% over the past week, it is easy to disregard Afya (NASDAQ:AFYA). But if you pay close attention, you might gather that its strong financials could mean that the stock could potentially see an increase in value in the long-term, given how markets usually reward companies with good financial health. Specifically, we decided to study Afya's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Afya is:

16% = R$747m ÷ R$4.8b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2025).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.16 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Afya's Earnings Growth And 16% ROE

To start with, Afya's ROE looks acceptable. And on comparing with the industry, we found that the the average industry ROE is similar at 17%. This certainly adds some context to Afya's exceptional 23% net income growth seen over the past five years. We believe that there might also be other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.

We then performed a comparison between Afya's net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company's growth is similar to the average industry growth of 25% in the same 5-year period.

past-earnings-growth
NasdaqGS:AFYA Past Earnings Growth January 9th 2026

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is AFYA fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Afya Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Afya's ' three-year median payout ratio is on the lower side at 18% implying that it is retaining a higher percentage (82%) of its profits. So it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business and this reflects in its earnings growth number.

While Afya has seen growth in its earnings, it only recently started to pay a dividend. It is most likely that the company decided to impress new and existing shareholders with a dividend. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 23% over the next three years. However, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much despite the higher expected payout ratio.

Conclusion

Overall, we are quite pleased with Afya's performance. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. Unsurprisingly, this has led to an impressive earnings growth. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates.

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