• In recent days, hedge funds have lifted their short positions in U.S. equities to the highest level since 2016, with PBF Energy emerging as one of the most heavily shorted mid-cap names despite its strong U.S. refining and logistics footprint.
• This unusual mix of elevated short interest and a strong quantitative buy rating has put PBF Energy in the spotlight as a focal point for differing views on the refining sector.
• We’ll now explore how PBF’s elevated hedge fund short interest interacts with its existing investment narrative built around refining asset strength.

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PBF Energy Investment Narrative Recap

To own PBF Energy, you need to believe that its U.S. refining and logistics assets can eventually convert current losses into sustainable, cyclical profitability. The recent jump in hedge fund short interest sharpens attention on the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings release as the key near term catalyst, while reinforcing an existing risk around operational and regulatory pressure at complex refineries like Martinez. At this stage, the short interest itself does not materially alter those core business drivers.

The most relevant recent announcement is PBF’s scheduled Q4 2025 results on 12 February 2026, following a year where the company remained unprofitable despite a return to quarterly profitability in Q3 2025. With elevated short interest and a history of volatile earnings, how management frames operating performance, capital needs for aging assets, and the trajectory of losses will likely shape how investors reassess both the near term catalyst and the longer term risk profile.

But behind the apparent value story, investors should be aware of the mounting regulatory and decarbonization risk that could...

PBF Energy's narrative projects $33.5 billion revenue and $71.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 3.4% yearly revenue growth and a $1,053.6 million earnings increase from -$982.3 million today.

Uncover how PBF Energy's forecasts yield a $31.92 fair value, a 7% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

While consensus sees PBF eventually turning profitable, the most pessimistic analysts were assuming roughly 2.3% annual revenue decline and no profitability in three years, which creates a very different lens on today’s surge in short interest and tight refining capacity.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on PBF Energy - why the stock might be worth over 10x more than the current price!

Build Your Own PBF Energy Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your PBF Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free PBF Energy research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate PBF Energy's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.