Granite Construction (GVA) has put up a mixed but numerically strong set of FY 2025 year to date numbers, with Q3 revenue at US$1.4b and basic EPS of US$2.35 alongside trailing 12 month revenue of US$4.2b and EPS of US$4.18, all against a current share price of US$129.22. Over recent quarters the company has seen revenue move from US$1.1b and EPS of US$1.64 in Q2 2025 to US$1.4b and EPS of US$2.35 in Q3, while prior Q3 2024 revenue of US$1.3b and EPS of US$1.81 round out the recent trend investors are watching. Taken together with a trailing net profit margin of 4.3%, the latest figures point to a business where profitability is central to how the quarter will be judged.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to weigh them against the main Granite Construction narratives that investors follow and see which stories the latest margins and earnings support and which they push back on.

TTM earnings and margin shift stand out

• Over the last 12 months, Granite earned US$182.5 million of net income on US$4.2b of revenue, for a 4.3% net margin compared with 2.8% a year earlier.
• Consensus narrative sees long term margin expansion, and the current 4.3% margin already sits between the 3.9% starting point and higher margin levels analysts talk about, which raises questions about how much of that story is already in the trailing numbers.
  • Bullish commentators point to operational discipline and materials expansion as key drivers, while the data shows earnings rising faster than revenue over the past year with earnings up 64.6% against a smaller step up in trailing revenue from US$3.8b to US$4.2b.
  • At the same time, the higher margin is being earned alongside a record backlog and larger scale, so investors can check whether this level looks like a new baseline or something that might move around as projects roll off.

Q3 2025 profitability compared with the loss in Q1

• Q3 2025 net income of US$102.9 million compares with a Q1 2025 net loss of US$33.7 million, with basic EPS moving from a loss of US$0.77 in Q1 to US$2.35 in Q3.
• Bulls argue that federal funding tailwinds and a stronger project mix can support revenue and profit resilience, and the swing from a Q1 loss to over US$100 million of profit in Q3 invites a closer look at how much of that comes from timing of work versus the longer term trends they highlight.
  • Supporters of the bullish view often lean on ideas like operational discipline and materials growth, and the quarter by quarter pattern in 2025, from US$699.5 million of revenue in Q1 to US$1.4b in Q3, gives them concrete data to point to when talking about scale.
  • On the other hand, the presence of a loss earlier in the same fiscal year is a reminder that project timing and seasonality can influence results even when the trailing 12 month picture looks stronger.

Bulls say the bigger profit swings and stronger margins hint at a business entering a stronger phase, while the quarterly volatility keeps the story interesting for anyone weighing how durable that shift really is. 🐂 Granite Construction Bull Case

Debt risk, valuation signals, and the 4.3% margin

• The shares trade on a trailing P/E of 30.9x at US$129.22, compared with a peer average of 28.8x and a US Construction industry average of 39.5x, while the trailing net margin sits at 4.3% and the DCF fair value in the dataset is US$159.92.
• Bears focus on the high level of debt and sensitivity to public funding, and the combination of a 30.9x P/E, a 4.3% margin, and a DCF fair value that is above the current price gives them a mixed set of signals to work through.
  • Critics highlight that using leverage to support growth can strain future earnings if conditions weaken, and the risk section explicitly flags debt as a key financial consideration even as earnings have grown 64.6% over the past year.
  • At the same time, the data shows no substantial insider selling over the last three months, which some readers may weigh against the higher P/E and debt concerns when thinking about how management and insiders view the current position.

Skeptics point to the debt load and higher P/E as reasons for caution, especially if you think the 4.3% margin and recent earnings jump are hard to repeat. 🐻 Granite Construction Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Granite Construction on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

See the numbers differently? Take a couple of minutes to test your own view against the data and shape it into a clear narrative: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Granite Construction research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

See What Else Is Out There

Granite Construction pairs a 4.3% net margin and a 30.9x P/E with meaningful debt and volatile quarterly results, which may leave you questioning downside protection.

If that mix of leverage, valuation and earnings swings feels a bit too tense, take a focused look at 85 resilient stocks with low risk scores that aim to prioritise resilience when conditions change.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.