Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) (NYSE:HOMB) last week reported its latest annual results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$1.1b and statutory earnings per share of US$2.41 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Home Bancshares (Conway AR) is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Home Bancshares (Conway AR)'s six analysts is for revenues of US$1.15b in 2026. This reflects a modest 7.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 2.6% to US$2.37 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.16b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.44 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$33.25, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Home Bancshares (Conway AR) analyst has a price target of US$36.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$30.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Home Bancshares (Conway AR) is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Home Bancshares (Conway AR)'s revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 10% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Home Bancshares (Conway AR).

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Home Bancshares (Conway AR). On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Home Bancshares (Conway AR). Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Home Bancshares (Conway AR) going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see whether Home Bancshares (Conway AR) is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.