• PBF Energy recently reported past fourth-quarter 2025 results showing sales of US$7,139.5 million and net income of US$78.4 million, alongside production growth and confirmed quarterly dividend and buyback activity.
• Despite lower full-year 2025 sales of US$29,332.3 million and a reduced net loss of US$158.5 million, the company increased quarterly refinery throughput and outlined first-quarter 2026 production guidance, including 16,000 to 18,000 barrels per day of renewable diesel.
• We’ll now examine how PBF’s return to quarterly profitability and renewed production guidance may influence its existing investment narrative.

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PBF Energy Investment Narrative Recap

PBF Energy is still largely an old-economy refiner, so to own the stock you need to believe its core plants can run reliably while renewable diesel gradually strengthens the story. The latest quarter’s return to profitability is encouraging, but it does not fundamentally reduce the key short term risk around operational and regulatory issues at major refineries like Martinez, which continue to influence both earnings volatility and how much cash is available for reinvestment.

The most relevant update for that thesis is PBF’s first quarter 2026 throughput guidance, including 16,000 to 18,000 barrels per day of renewable diesel. This points to higher utilization and a clearer ramp at St. Bernard Renewables, which directly ties into the near term catalyst of bringing more renewable barrels online. Even so, investors still have to weigh this progress against ongoing exposure to tougher coastal regulations and potential refinery disruptions.

Yet while this improving production picture may look reassuring, investors should still be aware that...

PBF Energy's narrative projects $33.5 billion revenue and $71.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 3.4% yearly revenue growth and a $1,053.6 million earnings increase from $-982.3 million today.

Uncover how PBF Energy's forecasts yield a $31.92 fair value, a 6% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were previously modeling PBF’s revenue reaching about US$37.3 billion with earnings of roughly US$5.6 billion, far above consensus, and saw the Martinez restart as unlocking West Coast pricing power rather than just adding barrels. This Q4 profit and higher throughput guidance could either support that bullish view or prompt revisions, so it is worth comparing how your own expectations line up with these very different narratives.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on PBF Energy - why the stock might be worth over 10x more than the current price!

Decide For Yourself

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your PBF Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free PBF Energy research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate PBF Energy's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.