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Investors in Forward Air (NASDAQ:FWRD) from three years ago are still down 73%, even after 7.7% gain this past week
Forward Air Corporation FWRD | 27.82 | +0.14% |
Forward Air Corporation (NASDAQ:FWRD) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 20% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been stomach churning. To wit, the share price sky-dived 73% in that time. Arguably, the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
Forward Air wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.
In the last three years, Forward Air saw its revenue grow by 20% per year, compound. That's a fairly respectable growth rate. So it seems unlikely the 20% share price drop (each year) is entirely about the revenue. It could be that the losses were much larger than expected. If you buy into companies that lose money then you always risk losing money yourself. Just don't lose the lesson.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Take a more thorough look at Forward Air's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
A Different Perspective
Forward Air shareholders are down 16% for the year, but the market itself is up 21%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 11% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Forward Air .
But note: Forward Air may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.


