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Is Axalta Coating Systems (NYSE:AXTA) A Risky Investment?
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. AXTA | 33.58 | 0.00% |
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (NYSE:AXTA) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
What Is Axalta Coating Systems's Net Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Axalta Coating Systems had US$3.40b in debt in September 2025; about the same as the year before. However, it also had US$606.0m in cash, and so its net debt is US$2.80b.
A Look At Axalta Coating Systems' Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, Axalta Coating Systems had liabilities of US$1.36b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$4.08b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$606.0m and US$1.41b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$3.42b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Axalta Coating Systems has a market capitalization of US$7.19b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Axalta Coating Systems has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.8 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 4.0 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. The good news is that Axalta Coating Systems improved its EBIT by 2.9% over the last twelve months, thus gradually reducing its debt levels relative to its earnings. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Axalta Coating Systems's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Axalta Coating Systems recorded free cash flow worth 59% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
Neither Axalta Coating Systems's ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But we do take some comfort from its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Axalta Coating Systems is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Axalta Coating Systems .
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.


