• Greif, Inc. reported first-quarter 2025 results for the period ended December 31, 2025, with sales of US$994.8 million versus US$1,016.7 million a year earlier and net income of US$174.6 million compared with US$22 million.
• The sharp increase in profitability despite slightly lower sales highlights a meaningful shift in Greif’s earnings mix and cost or margin profile.
• We’ll now consider how this earnings-driven jump in net income shapes Greif’s investment narrative and what it may signal for future profitability.

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What Is Greif's Investment Narrative?

To own Greif today, you really have to believe in the company’s ability to turn a relatively low-growth packaging business into a more efficient earnings engine, and the latest quarter supports that case. Net income jumped to US$174.6 million on slightly lower sales, reinforcing that margins and mix, not just volume, are doing the heavy lifting. That matters for the short term because a profit step-up of this size, helped by large one off items, can reset expectations around cash generation, capital returns and how “expensive” Greif looks on a 23.1x earnings multiple. At the same time, it sharpens existing risks: dividend coverage by free cash flow is still tight, insider selling has picked up, and returns on equity remain modest. This earnings print fits in as a positive, but also raises the bar for what comes next.

However, one key risk around the quality and repeatability of earnings should not be overlooked. Greif's shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued. Find out how large the opportunity might be.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$45 to just over US$193, with some seeing very large upside. Set that against the recent earnings jump driven partly by one off gains, and you can see why different investors may weigh Greif’s margin story and cash flow risks very differently.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Greif - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Greif Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Greif research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Greif research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Greif's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.