Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) drew investor attention after reporting fourth quarter 2025 earnings that included a US$6.8 million net loss and revenue of US$1.86b, with results coming in below market expectations.

The earnings miss and move into a quarterly loss were followed by a 1 day share price decline of 4.19%. However, the 90 day share price return of 25.63% and the 5 year total shareholder return of 50.34% suggest longer term holders have seen gains and recent momentum has been building.

If this earnings update has you reassessing the transport sector, it could be a good moment to compare Knight-Swift with auto manufacturers as another way to look at demand tied to the broader economy.

With Knight-Swift now posting a quarterly loss but still showing solid multi year returns, and trading below analyst targets and some intrinsic estimates, is there still value on the table here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 9.7% Undervalued

At a last close of $56.95 versus a narrative fair value of $63.05, Knight-Swift is framed as modestly undervalued, with that gap tied directly to its long term freight and efficiency story.

Ongoing deployment of technology such as AI-enabled automation, telematics, route optimization, and trailer tracking provides structural reductions in unit costs and durable operational efficiencies, offering a pathway to margin expansion and improved earnings as volumes recover.

Want to see what kind of revenue path and margin lift would justify that higher value, and how far earnings might scale under this view? The full narrative lays out a detailed earnings curve, profit margin reset, and valuation multiple that together explain why fair value sits meaningfully above today’s price.

Result: Fair Value of $63.05 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that upside story can unravel if freight demand stays soft for longer than analysts expect, or if LTL integration costs keep margins under pressure.

Another View: Multiples Flash A Very Different Signal

While the SWS narrative fair value of $63.05 suggests Knight-Swift is 9.7% undervalued, the current P/E of 140.2x tells a different story. It is far above the US Transportation industry at 33.8x, peers at 28.8x, and the fair ratio of 29.4x, which points to meaningful valuation risk if sentiment cools.

Build Your Own Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Narrative

If the numbers or assumptions here do not quite match how you see Knight-Swift, you can test your own view in minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Knight-Swift has sparked your interest, do not stop here. The Screener can quickly surface other opportunities you might wish you had seen earlier.

• Target income first and check out these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that can help you focus on companies regularly returning cash to shareholders.
• Get ahead of the next big trend by scanning these 24 AI penny stocks for businesses tied to artificial intelligence themes.
• Spot potential mispricings early by working through these 864 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that highlight companies trading below their estimated cash flow value.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.