How Mohawk Industries (MHK) Latest Results Set the Stage for the Next Chapter

Mohawk Industries (MHK) closed FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$2.7 billion and basic EPS of US$0.68, rounding out a year in which trailing twelve month revenue was US$10.8 billion and EPS was US$5.96. The company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$2.6 billion in Q4 2024 to US$2.8 billion in Q2 2025 before settling at US$2.7 billion in Q4 2025, while quarterly EPS shifted from US$1.48 to US$2.35 over that same stretch, with net income ranging between US$42 million and US$162 million. For investors, the key question now is whether these earnings and margin levels can support the stronger growth outlook that has been discussed around the stock.

See our full analysis for Mohawk Industries.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to set these results against the major narratives around Mohawk so you can see where the latest margin profile fits with the stories investors have been following over the past year.

Margins Under Pressure At 3.4%

• On a trailing basis, Mohawk earned US$369.9 million of net income on US$10.8b of revenue, which works out to a 3.4% net margin compared with 4.8% the year before.
• Analysts' consensus view expects margins to improve over time, yet the current 3.4% margin and the multi‑year earnings decline of 24.6% per year sit against that view and highlight how much needs to change operationally before higher margins show up consistently in the reported numbers.
  • The consensus narrative talks about efficiency gains from automation and supply chain work. However, the last 12 months still show lower margins than a year ago.
  • It also points to premium products and sustainability supporting pricing. Even so, the modest forecast revenue growth of 2.5% a year suggests volume alone is not doing the heavy lifting.

Earnings Forecasts Versus 5‑Year Decline

• Forecasts call for earnings to grow about 25.9% a year, yet over the past five years Mohawk's earnings declined by 24.6% a year, so the expected improvement is starting from a weaker historical base.
• What stands out in the bullish narrative is how strongly it leans on future drivers, such as higher expected profit margins of 7.2% in three years and earnings of US$827.2 million. At the same time, the recent five year record of shrinking earnings and the current 3.4% margin show that the turnaround case still relies on assumptions rather than recent trends.
  • Bulls point to growth in high end laminate and LVT supporting better pricing, but trailing revenue of about US$10.8b is close to the prior year, which fits the modest 2.5% revenue growth forecast.
  • The same bullish view highlights global diversification and emerging markets, yet the earnings decline over five years shows that a broader footprint alone has not been enough to offset past pressures.

Have a look at how supporters of the optimistic case connect these earnings trends to their long term growth story: 🐂 Mohawk Industries Bull Case

Mixed Valuation Signals At US$132.60

• At a share price of US$132.60, Mohawk trades on a 22.2x P/E, above the US Consumer Durables average of 13.6x but below its peer average of 25.5x. This compares with a DCF fair value of about US$160.01 and an analyst consensus price target of roughly US$136.07.
• Critics focusing on the cautious or bearish side often highlight that earnings have fallen 24.6% a year over five years and net margin is down to 3.4%. This creates tension with the current valuation multiples and with the idea that the stock trades about 17.1% below DCF fair value.
  • The analyst target sits only a few dollars above the current price, which lines up with the view that, despite the modeled upside to DCF fair value, the market may be treating the modest 2.5% revenue growth forecast as a key constraint.
  • At the same time, the higher P/E than the broader industry suggests investors are already paying up somewhat for the roughly 25.9% expected earnings growth, even while recent profitability metrics remain subdued.

Skeptical about how much upside is really priced in at today’s P/E and margin levels? Check how cautious analysts frame the downside case here: 🐻 Mohawk Industries Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Mohawk Industries on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

See the numbers a different way? Take a couple of minutes to test your own thesis, shape your version of Mohawk's story and Do it your way

A great starting point for your Mohawk Industries research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

See What Else Is Out There

Mohawk's 3.4% net margin, five year earnings decline of 24.6% a year, and modest 2.5% revenue growth forecast leave its turnaround case heavily debated.

If those mixed signals make you hesitant to rely on a single turnaround story, put your capital shortlist through our 85 resilient stocks with low risk scores and focus on companies that currently score better on resilience.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.