Nexa Resources (NYSE:NEXA) has wrapped up FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$903.0 million and basic EPS of US$0.38, setting a clear marker for how the year finished. The company has seen quarterly revenue range from US$627.1 million in Q1 2025 to US$903.0 million in Q4 2025, while basic EPS moved from US$0.09 in Q1 to US$0.52 in Q3 and US$0.38 in Q4, giving investors a fuller picture of how profitability has tracked alongside sales. With trailing twelve month EPS at US$1.00 and net income of US$132.6 million, the latest print puts the spotlight firmly on how durable these margins look as the company enters the next phase of its story.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up with the widely followed narratives about Nexa’s path to profitability, risk, and long term growth.

Trailing 12‑Month Swing Back to Profit

• On a trailing 12‑month basis, Nexa moved from a net loss of US$205.0 million and EPS of US$1.55 in Q4 2024 to net income of US$132.6 million and EPS of US$1.00 by Q4 2025, alongside revenue of about US$3.0 billion.
• Bulls point to this shift as early confirmation of their view that earnings can scale, but the data also shows how uneven the path has been:
  • Within 2025 alone, quarterly net income ranged from US$1.1 million in Q2 to US$69.3 million in Q3, so the move back into profit has come with big swings between quarters.
  • At the same time, the bullish narrative talks about earnings reaching US$190.7 million a year with margins of 6.3%, which sits above the current trailing net income of US$132.6 million and highlights how much further profit still needs to grow to match that view.

Strong believers in the bullish story argue this return to profit is just the starting point for Nexa's earnings journey, not the finish line. 🐂 Nexa Resources Bull Case

Revenue Near US$3.0b, Growth Still Modest

• Revenue over the last twelve months reached about US$3.0 billion, up from US$2.8 billion to US$2.9 billion across earlier trailing periods, while forward looking data points to forecast revenue growth of about 1.2% a year compared with a 10.3% benchmark for the wider US market.
• Bears focus on this modest growth profile and argue it can cap how far earnings go, even if margins improve:
  • The bearish narrative works off revenue growth assumptions of roughly 1.3% per year, which is very close to the 1.2% figure cited in the broader forecasts and shows that both the cautious and base cases are anchored in low growth expectations.
  • Even though analysts expect profit margins to move from a loss making position today to around 5.2% to 5.4% in three years, the slower revenue growth compared with the wider market means a lot of the heavy lifting has to come from margin changes rather than bigger volumes.

Skeptical investors point out that with revenue growth expected to stay low, the bearish case leans on the idea that any stumble on margins could quickly show up in the bottom line. 🐻 Nexa Resources Bear Case

Low P/S Multiple Versus DCF Fair Value

• At a share price of US$13.65 and a P/S of 0.6x versus a US Metals & Mining industry average of 2.8x and a peer average of 10.7x, Nexa screens as relatively inexpensive, while the price is also below the DCF fair value of about US$14.64.
• Consensus and risk analysis treat this valuation gap as a trade off between current losses and future improvement:
  • The same dataset flags that the company has been loss making over the past five years, with losses growing at about 5.1% a year, so the low P/S and gap to DCF fair value appear to reflect that track record as much as the latest 12‑month profit.
  • On the other hand, forecasts for earnings to grow around 21.9% a year and turn positive within three years sit alongside that low multiple, which suggests the market is still pricing in meaningful execution risk even after the recent swing back into profit.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Nexa Resources on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

If this mix of bullish and cautious takes has you on the fence, now is a good time to look through the underlying data yourself and stress test your view. To see what the market is currently optimistic about, check out 3 key rewards.

Explore Alternatives

Nexa’s modest forecast revenue growth, reliance on margin shifts, and history of losses, alongside a low P/S ratio, highlight execution risk that may concern some investors.

If you want ideas that aim to balance opportunity with a steadier profile, take a look at our 76 resilient stocks with low risk scores that surfaces companies with more resilient risk scores right now.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.