PBF Energy (PBF) has attracted fresh attention after a recent stretch of mixed share performance. A modest monthly gain alongside negative 1-day and 7-day returns is raising questions about how investors should interpret the stock at this point.

For now, PBF Energy’s recent pullback, with a 1-day share price return of a 5.32% decline and a 7-day share price return of a 9.89% decline, sits against a 30-day share price return of 10.97% and a 5-year total shareholder return that is very large. This suggests that shorter term momentum is fading while the longer term picture still reflects substantial value creation for investors who have held on.

If this kind of volatility has you thinking about where else to put capital to work, it could be a good time to broaden your search with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With a recent pullback, an intrinsic value estimate only about 2% above the share price, and a small discount to analyst targets, should you view PBF Energy as undervalued today, or is the market already accounting for potential future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 3.4% Undervalued

The most followed narrative values PBF Energy at US$30.58 per share, slightly above the last close of US$29.53. This points to a modest valuation gap rather than a dramatic mispricing.

Company wide cost reduction and business improvement initiatives (RBI) are on track to deliver $230 million of annualized savings by the end of 2025 and $350 million by the end of 2026, mainly through lower OpEx and CapEx. These are expected to improve net margins and free cash flow over the next several years.

Curious how a small valuation gap rests on expectations for improving margins, rising revenues, and a higher future earnings multiple? The full narrative spells out the numbers behind that US$30.58 fair value estimate, including what kind of profitability shift would need to show up in future results to support it.

Result: Fair Value of $30.58 (UNDERVALUED)

However, you still need to weigh the execution risk at Martinez and the ongoing regulatory pressure in key coastal markets, which could challenge margins and cash generation.

Build Your Own PBF Energy Narrative

If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply prefer to test your own assumptions against the data, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your PBF Energy research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you stop with just one stock, you could miss opportunities sitting in plain sight, so widen your search and let the data work harder for you.

• Spot potential value by scanning these 863 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that appear cheap relative to their underlying cash flows and financial quality.
• Catch early trends in digital assets by reviewing these 80 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks linked to blockchain infrastructure, payments, and related services.
• Target income-focused ideas with these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that offer dividend yields above 3% and a track record of distributions.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.