Last week saw the newest annual earnings release from Hess Midstream LP (NYSE:HESM), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$1.6b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Hess Midstream surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$2.86 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, Hess Midstream's six analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$1.61b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 6.2% to US$2.56 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.63b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.65 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$36.83, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Hess Midstream analyst has a price target of US$39.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$34.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Hess Midstream is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Hess Midstream's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.6% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.0% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Hess Midstream's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hess Midstream. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Hess Midstream's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$36.83, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Hess Midstream going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Hess Midstream has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.