Smurfit Westrock FY 2025 earnings snapshot

Smurfit Westrock (SW) has wrapped up FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$7.6b, basic EPS of US$0.19 and net income of US$97m. This is setting the tone for how the full year is being read by the market. The company has seen revenue move from US$7.5b in Q4 FY 2024 to US$7.6b in Q4 FY 2025, while quarterly EPS shifted from US$0.28 to US$0.19 over the same period, against trailing twelve month EPS of US$1.34 and net income of US$699m on revenue of US$31.2b. With margins sitting on a relatively thin base and recent results shaped by one off items, investors are likely to focus on how sustainable the current profitability profile really is.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up with the main narratives investors follow around Smurfit Westrock’s growth prospects, risks and long term margin story.

Margins thin after one off US$505m loss

• Over the last 12 months, Smurfit Westrock generated US$31.2b of revenue and US$699m of net income, which works out to a net margin of 2.2% that was shaped by a large one off loss of US$505m in the period.
• Bulls argue that cost savings and merger synergies can lift profitability well above that 2.2% margin, yet the recent loss and modest 1.8% trailing revenue growth put some friction on that view:
  • On the bullish side, the narrative talks about US$400m of run rate synergies by the end of 2025 plus at least another US$400m from further operational improvements, which is a big swing compared with the current US$699m of trailing net income.
  • At the same time, the reported one off loss of US$505m and thin net margin underline how dependent that bullish story is on execution, because a single large item can move earnings by a similar magnitude to what bulls expect to add through efficiencies.

Bulls who see a margin recovery story here may want to compare these thin reported margins with the assumptions baked into their forecasts in more detail in the 🐂 Smurfit Westrock Bull Case.

EPS swings highlight earnings volatility

• Across FY 2025, basic EPS moved from US$0.74 in Q1 to a small loss of US$0.05 in Q2, then to US$0.47 in Q3 and US$0.19 in Q4, while trailing twelve month EPS sits at US$1.34, a pattern that lines up with the comment that earnings have been volatile.
• Bears focus on this choppy pattern to question how smooth future profit growth can really be, even with improvement plans underway:
  • Critics point out that Q2 FY 2025 included a net income loss of US$28m and Q3 FY 2024 showed a US$150m loss, which fits the bearish concern that integration efforts and cost pressures can still weigh heavily on the bottom line in any given period.
  • The bearish narrative also highlights ongoing restructuring and capacity closures that bring near term EBITDA drag and restructuring costs, and these kinds of items are consistent with the negative earnings prints already visible in the recent history.

If you are weighing these earnings swings against the more cautious outlook, it can help to read how skeptics frame the risks and timelines in the 🐻 Smurfit Westrock Bear Case.

Premium P/E and high debt with mixed signals

• At a share price of US$51.42 and trailing EPS of US$1.34, Smurfit Westrock trades on a P/E of about 38.3x, alongside a 3.52% dividend yield that is not well covered by earnings and with a high level of debt flagged in the risk summary.
• What stands out is the contrast between valuation signals and balance sheet and payout risks, which creates a push and pull for both bulls and bears:
  • On one side, a DCF fair value of US$132.69 and analyst expectations for earnings growth of about 26% per year frame the current P/E as something investors might be willing to pay if those growth paths are met.
  • On the other, the premium P/E relative to peer and industry averages, combined with high debt and a dividend that is not well covered by earnings, leaves less room for disappointment if earnings keep showing the kind of volatility seen in recent quarters.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Smurfit Westrock on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

See the numbers pointing in a different direction? Take a couple of minutes to shape that view into a clear story of your own with Do it your way

A great starting point for your Smurfit Westrock research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

See What Else Is Out There

Smurfit Westrock is working with thin 2.2% margins, volatile EPS, high debt and a dividend that current earnings do not comfortably cover.

If that mix of earnings swings, balance sheet pressure and payout risk feels a bit tight for your comfort, take a serious look at 84 resilient stocks with low risk scores to focus on companies where financial risk scores aim for resilience instead of tension.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.