Latest FY 2025 headline numbers

Victory Capital Holdings (VCTR) closed FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$374.1 million and basic EPS of US$1.33, while trailing twelve month revenue reached US$1.3 billion and EPS came in at US$4.13. Over recent quarters, revenue has moved from US$219.6 million in Q1 2025 to US$351.2 million in Q2, US$361.2 million in Q3 and US$374.1 million in Q4, with basic EPS over the same stretch of US$0.94, US$0.71, US$1.12 and US$1.33 respectively. With trailing net profit margin now at 20.7% versus 32.3% a year earlier, investors are likely to focus on how these results balance revenue progress against pressure on profitability.

With the numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up with the prevailing stories around growth, margins and long term potential that investors have been following.

Net margin slips to 20.7%

• Over the last 12 months, Victory Capital converted US$1.3b of revenue into US$270.2 million of net income, which works out to a 20.7% net margin compared with 32.3% a year earlier.
• Critics highlight this margin compression as a key risk, and the data gives them something real to point to:
  • Trailing net income of US$270.2 million on US$1.3b of revenue is materially below the prior 32.3% margin level that was being earned a year ago.
  • The mixed 5 year earnings record of 1.3% annual growth, alongside a weaker latest year, sits awkwardly next to expectations for much faster profit growth ahead.

Stay on top of how this margin picture evolves next to profit expectations and market views in the full set of narratives for Victory Capital Holdings, where both risks and potential rewards are laid out side by side.

AUM growth with US$4.5b outflows

• Across the latest 12 months, assets under management moved from US$171.9b at the start of the period to US$313.8b at the end, while clients withdrew a net US$4.5b over that stretch.
• What stands out against the generally positive long term view on diversified managers is how these flows complicate the story:
  • Quarterly figures show net outflows of US$2.1b in Q4 2025 and US$292 million in Q3 2025, alongside earlier outflows of US$2.6b in Q3 2024, so growth in AUM has depended heavily on market moves rather than fresh client money.
  • At the same time, Q4 2025 revenue of US$374.1 million and net income of US$86.2 million indicate the business is still producing solid fee and profit dollars on the larger asset base despite those withdrawals.

Mixed signals on growth and valuation

• Victory Capital is trading on a 16.5x trailing P/E against a peer average of 12.9x and a US Capital Markets industry average of 22.8x, with the current US$69.44 share price sitting about 4% below a DCF fair value of US$72.34.
• Supporters of the stronger growth story will point to the gap between past and expected earnings, and the pricing that goes with it:
  • Five year earnings grew 1.3% per year, but earnings are forecast to grow 36.15% per year while revenue is expected to increase 9.6% per year, slightly under the 10.3% US market forecast.
  • This mix of a modest discount to DCF fair value, a higher P/E than peers but lower than the broader industry, and a weaker recent margin record gives investors a lot to weigh in terms of how much growth they want to pay for.

Next Steps

Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on Victory Capital Holdings's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.

See What Else Is Out There

Pressure on margins, reliance on market moves for AUM growth and a higher P/E than peers all raise questions about how much risk you are taking on here.

If that mix feels a bit exposed for your taste, shift your focus to companies with stronger downside protection by scanning our 81 resilient stocks with low risk scores today.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.