4 Cynical Things I Think Are Arguably Bullish For Stocks
I’ve earned a reputation for being an optimist because I often say that the stock market usually goes up.
But just because I think the stock market is likely to trend higher in the long run doesn’t mean that I think everything is sunshine and rainbows.
There are some things I think that are arguably cynical that, for better or worse, are things that I’d argue are bullish for stocks.
I think we consume and waste too much
Some of us are better at responsible spending. Some of us can’t afford to be wasteful. But many of us just buy too much stuff. We buy clothes we don’t wear, food we don’t eat, toys we don’t play with, kitchenware we don’t use, home decor we don’t put out, subscriptions to newspapers we don’t read, and memberships to gyms we don’t go to.
I’m not one to judge. Just in the past two months, I’ve arguably spent far too much money on World Cup memorabilia and soccer jerseys that are destined for a box in the back of a closet. But I think it all makes me happy or something. And I think I can afford it.
That said, this behavior is bullish because all this spending keeps a lot of people employed at the companies selling all this stuff. That means those employees will have money to buy stuff, and many of the companies selling stuff are publicly traded in the stock market we invest in.
I think we move past tragedies a little fast
I was surprised by how quickly cruising and airline travel recovered and broke records after the COVID-19 pandemic had many of us grounded. Generally speaking, I’m surprised by how quickly we return to our pursuits of happiness after some incredibly horrible news.
Of course, everything is relative. We all have our own way of dealing with things. And when a tragedy hits closer to home for you than for others, you’ll probably take more time than others to return to your normal life.
To be fair, there are many good reasons to move on quickly. Your children won’t stop growing, and your body won’t stop aging. We can’t put our lives on hold forever. We only have so much time on earth to enjoy it with each other. And at the end of our journeys, I’m sure we’re less likely to regret moving on too quickly.
And similar to what I said earlier, taking your kids to Disney World, celebrating that birthday party, and going to that after-work happy hour all put money back into the economy, which puts people to work. And when people work, they have money to spend. Maybe the Disney employee or bartender will even buy the products from whatever company employs you.
I don’t think public companies are trying to make the ‘best’ products
Big, publicly traded companies make pretty good products. But while a publicly traded company might sell more hamburgers than any other restaurant on the planet, I think many of you would agree that the best burger isn’t made by a multi-billion-dollar corporation. It’s made at that local hotspot most people don’t know about. Or maybe you make the best burger.
There are many products and services sold by publicly traded companies, which I’m sure you know can be improved on significantly while still being profitable. But there’s a big difference between being profitable and being increasingly profitable. And publicly traded companies aim to be the latter, as their priority is to increase shareholder returns, not to sell the best product.
So this means pushing the limits of changing a product to appeal to the largest possible audience while cutting costs in every possible way. Eventually, you’re left with a product you’re almost certain to complain about, but you buy it anyway. I’m sure that sounds familiar.
But hey, if you own a big diversified portfolio of stocks, you’ve at least been cashing in on the earnings of the companies making these less-than-best products.
I think most of us will never be satisfied
No matter how good things are, I think most of us think things could be better. We could have more stuff. And that stuff could be better and cheaper.
As long as there is demand for better and cheaper stuff, there will be entrepreneurs innovating and eventually supplying this stuff.
The businesses providing better and cheaper stuff will see revenue grow. Some get big enough to get listed in the stock market. As revenue continues to grow, earnings will go up, driving stock prices higher.
This is the story of the stock market. New companies from new industries emerge, and they help drive the stock market higher. Over time, many of these companies go from leading to lagging. But by then, new companies and new industries emerge again, and the endless cycle continues.
The big picture
These are just my opinions.
And there are complex feelings I have about other big issues, including inequality, healthcare costs, retirement, executive compensation, white-collar crime, economic policy, and social safety nets. But I’m still working on how to articulate them.
Ultimately, I see a lot of forces — some bleaker than others — incentivizing people across the wealth spectrum to innovate, work, earn, and spend in ways that fuel earnings growth and in turn send the stock market higher.
To be crystal clear: I’m not suggesting I believe any of this is good. I just think they help explain why the stock market does what it does.
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
