Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) is drawing fresh attention after announcing three new store openings this quarter in Altoona, Pennsylvania, and two Tennessee locations, paired with community donations and grand opening events.

These new openings come as the stock edges higher in the short term, with a 1-day share price return of 2.92% and 7-day share price return of 3.90%, while the 30-day and 90-day share price returns are down 8.17% and 10.82%, respectively, against a 1-year total shareholder return of 30.61% and 5-year total shareholder return of 48.85%. This suggests recent momentum has cooled compared with its longer record.

If you are looking beyond one retailer to see where capital is flowing in related themes, it may be worth scanning 20 top founder-led companies

With Academy Sports and Outdoors trading at US$52.52 and internal estimates pointing to potential value above that level, the key question is simple: are you looking at an underappreciated retailer or a stock where the market already prices in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 14.5% Undervalued

With Academy Sports and Outdoors last closing at $52.52 against a narrative fair value of $61.42, the current price sits below what this widely followed story implies, putting more focus on what is driving that gap.

An ongoing store expansion strategy focused on secondary/tertiary markets with growing populations and suburban migration (20-25 new stores in 2025, robust early comps in new stores) sets up above-peer top-line growth and improved operating leverage as these locations mature.

Want to see what sits behind that store rollout and valuation gap? The narrative leans heavily on steady sales growth, firmer margins, and a re rated earnings multiple. The specific mix of growth, profitability, and discount rate assumptions may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $61.42 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this story can change quickly if higher income shoppers pull back or if heavier promotions and vendor shifts squeeze margins more than analysts currently factor in.

Next Steps

Given the mixed sentiment running through this story, it makes sense to look at the underlying data yourself and move quickly while views are still forming. You can start with the 3 key rewards.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.