Expansion with Jerónimo Martins puts Americold’s Lisbon hub in focus

Americold Realty Trust (COLD) has secured a multi-year agreement with Portuguese retailer Jerónimo Martins, centered on its Lisbon facility and covering storage and fulfillment for roughly 300 stores across Portugal.

The arrangement involves handling about 12 million frozen product cases annually, with Americold refurbishing cold storage chambers, increasing throughput capacity, and adding more than 80 jobs. This will expand the site’s workforce by over 40%.

Investors have seen momentum pick up recently, with Americold’s 1 month share price return of 24.9% and 90 day share price return of 21.0%, even though the 1 year total shareholder return is flat and longer term total shareholder returns are still negative.

If this kind of logistics expansion has your attention, it may be a good time to see what else is moving and check out 33 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

With COLD up 24.9% over the past month but still showing weaker 3 and 5 year total returns, and trading around a 24% intrinsic discount, the key question is whether this is a fresh entry point or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 100% Undervalued

The most followed narrative puts Americold’s fair value at $15.50 using a 10.9% discount rate, slightly above the last close of $15.34. This keeps attention on the assumptions behind that gap.

Barriers to entry in cold storage, such as high capital intensity, know how, and regulatory requirements, restrict new competitors. This favors Americold's scale advantages, while ongoing investment in technology and partnerships (e.g., CPKC, DP World) enhances operating efficiencies and supports improving net margins and future earnings growth potential.

The fair value story leans heavily on steadier revenue growth, a much stronger profit margin profile, and a lower future earnings multiple than many investors might expect. Curious what that mix looks like in detail?

Result: Fair Value of $15.50 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the picture is not one sided. Elevated net debt of about US$3.9b and ongoing demand headwinds are both capable of weighing on occupancy and margins.

Next Steps

The story so far mixes optimism with real concerns. If you are interested, move quickly to weigh both sides using the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.