Century Aluminum (CENX) has released its first quarter 2026 earnings, reporting revenue of US$649.2 million and net income of US$337.5 million, figures that sharply contrast with the prior year’s results.

The stock has been active around the earnings release, with a 1-day share price return of a 3.26% decline, a 90-day share price return of 15.61% and a very large 1-year total shareholder return, suggesting momentum has been building over a longer horizon.

If Century Aluminum’s move has caught your attention, this can be a useful moment to look at other materials linked ideas using our screener of 33 best rare earth metal stocks.

With the stock up strongly over the past year and trading below both some analyst targets and certain intrinsic value estimates, the key question is whether Century Aluminum is still undervalued or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 23.6% Undervalued

Analysts most followed narrative implies a fair value of about $79.33 per share versus the last close at $60.58, putting the current price at a clear discount in that framework.

The expansion and restart of Mt. Holly, along with progress on a new U.S. smelter, positions Century Aluminum to meaningfully increase U.S. primary aluminum production by capturing rising domestic demand driven by reshoring of supply chains and incentivized by government tariffs and trade protections. This is expected to support future revenue growth and improved fixed cost absorption, and thus enhance net margins.

Want to see what sits behind that confidence in future earnings power and cash flow, including the revenue path, margin ambitions and the implied profit multiple on those forecasts?

Result: Fair Value of $79.33 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this narrative still depends heavily on US trade policy remaining supportive and on Century keeping energy and project costs, especially at Mt. Holly and Oklahoma, under control.

Another Angle On Value

While the narrative and fair value work suggest upside, the current P/E of roughly 149.9x sits far above both the US Metals and Mining industry average of 22.6x and a fair ratio estimate of 43.4x. That gap points to meaningful valuation risk if sentiment or assumptions shift, so which signal do you trust more?

Next Steps

With such a mixed picture on value and outlook, do not wait for consensus to settle. Review the underlying data yourself and then weigh up the 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Century Aluminum might have grabbed your attention, but you do not want to stop at one stock when there are other focused ideas worth checking right now.

• Target potential upside with companies that combine quality and attractive pricing by scanning our 51 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Lock in potential income ideas by reviewing stocks in the 12 dividend fortresses.
• Prioritize resilience by checking companies with stronger financial footing in the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (44 results).

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.