Century Aluminum (CENX) is back in focus after promoting Levi Chaffin to Senior Vice President of Operations, Americas, following its earlier move to partner on a new United States aluminum smelting plant.

The executive promotion and new US smelter partnership come as the share price sits at US$50.23, with an 8.07% 1 day share price return, a 27.78% 90 day share price return and a very large 3 year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum has been building over time, even after some recent pullbacks.

If this kind of move has your attention, it could be worth widening your search to other materials related names using our screener for 8 top copper producer stocks

With Century Aluminum trading at US$50.23, sitting on a very large 1 year total return and a material discount to a US$66.00 analyst price target, it is reasonable to ask whether there is still upside potential or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 23.9% Undervalued

At a last close of $50.23 versus a narrative fair value of $66.00, the current price sits well below what the most followed model is pointing to.

The expansion and restart of Mt. Holly, along with progress on a new U.S. smelter, positions Century Aluminum to meaningfully increase U.S. primary aluminum production, capturing rising domestic demand driven by reshoring of supply chains and incentivized by government tariffs and trade protections, supporting future revenue growth and improved fixed cost absorption, thus enhancing net margins.

Curious what kind of revenue curve, margin lift, and valuation multiple are baked into that $66.00 figure? The narrative leans on ambitious earnings power, rich cash generation, and a compressed future P/E that still implies a very different profit profile from today.

Result: Fair Value of $66.00 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that fair value story depends heavily on Section 232 tariffs and firm Midwest premiums, while large capex projects like the Oklahoma smelter could face delays or cost overruns.

Another View on Valuation

The narrative fair value of $66.00 leans on strong future cash flows, but today the shares trade on a P/E of 124.3x versus 13.1x for peers and 20.4x for the wider US Metals and Mining group, while the fair ratio sits at 44.6x. That gap points to meaningful valuation risk if expectations reset.

For a closer look at what the numbers imply at different earnings levels, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

With sentiment clearly mixed between rich expectations and flagged risks, it makes sense to check the data yourself and move quickly while the story is still developing; start by weighing the 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.