Hayward Holdings (HAYW) just released first quarter 2026 results that beat market expectations, reporting double digit revenue and earnings growth, and raised full year sales and earnings guidance for 2026.

After these stronger than expected results and higher guidance, Hayward’s 1 month share price return of 12.48% stands out against a weaker 90 day share price return of a 6.52% decline and a 5 year total shareholder return of a 35.77% decline, suggesting recent momentum is improving from a tougher longer term stretch.

If this kind of guidance upgrade has you thinking about other names benefiting from infrastructure and electrification trends, it could be a good time to scan 35 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

With the stock at US$15.05, a roughly 14% discount to the average analyst price target and a similar gap to some intrinsic value estimates, the key question is whether Hayward is still mispriced or if markets are already accounting for future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 13.3% Undervalued

Against Hayward Holdings' last close at $15.05, the most followed narrative points to a fair value of $17.36, implying meaningful upside based on analyst modelling.

Accelerating adoption of connected, automated pool equipment (like the new OmniX platform) increases average equipment content per pool and positions Hayward for higher-margin sales and digital revenue streams, supporting both revenue growth and EBITDA margin improvement.

Want to see what turns connected pumps and smart controls into a higher valuation? The narrative leans heavily on future revenue mix, margin lift, and a richer earnings multiple. Curious which earnings and margin assumptions have to hold to justify that fair value and how long that runway is supposed to last? Read on to see what the full narrative is baking into Hayward's future cash flows.

Result: Fair Value of $17.36 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this upbeat story can change quickly if repair-over-replacement trends persist or if heightened price competition keeps pressure on Hayward's margins.

Next Steps

The mix of optimism and concern around Hayward is clear. Use this as a starting point, move quickly and weigh both sides with the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.