Joby Aviation (JOBY) drew fresh attention after its first quarter update combined a wider net loss with key certification progress, including its first FAA conforming flight and plans to scale manufacturing.

The share price has been volatile, with a 7 day share price return of 20.85% on the back of Q1 news and FAA progress. Year to date, the share price is still down 26.95%, while the 1 year total shareholder return stands at 45.90% and the 3 year total shareholder return at roughly 2.1x. This suggests that momentum has picked up recently after a weak start to the year.

If you are looking beyond air taxis and want to see what else is moving in advanced mobility and automation, the next step is to scan 30 robotics and automation stocks

With the stock up sharply on certification milestones and Q1 headlines, but still down for the year and trading only about 6% below the average analyst price target, you have to ask: is there real upside left here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.6% Undervalued

At a last close of $10.49 versus a narrative fair value of $12.14, the current price sits below what the most followed story implies. This view hinges heavily on future commercialization and margin improvement rather than where Joby Aviation is today.

The company is investing heavily ahead of broad commercial adoption, including scaling manufacturing with Toyota, building out facilities in Marina and Dayton, and preparing global operations. This could keep cash use high and delay earnings leverage if real air taxi demand or pricing power falls short of expectations, which could pressure future net margins.

Want to see what kind of revenue ramp and margin shift has to line up for that valuation gap to make sense? The narrative leans on very fast top line growth, a sharp swing toward positive profitability, and a rich earnings multiple far above what airlines usually see, all baked into a long term discounted view that you might or might not agree with.

Result: Fair Value of $12.14 (UNDERVALUED)

However, there are also signs that could challenge the cautious view. These include Joby’s Q3 2025 revenue of US$23 million and liquidity of roughly US$1.55b.

Next Steps

With mixed signals on risk and reward running through this story, do you want to let the market decide for you or check the data yourself? Take a closer look at the balance of potential upside and concerns by reviewing the 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Joby has you thinking bigger about your portfolio, do not stop here. Widen your search and compare other opportunities before the next move catches you off guard.

• Spot potential turnaround opportunities early by scanning 27 elite penny stocks with strong financials that already show healthier fundamentals than many expect from low priced stocks.
• Zero in on quality at a sensible price by reviewing the 44 high quality undervalued stocks that combine solid cash flows with balance sheets that can support future plans.
• Prioritize resilience and support more restful investing by focusing on 69 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on financial strength and business risk metrics.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.