Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) has expanded its Permian Basin footprint by acquiring more than 20,000 horsepower of large compression assets, paired with a seven-year service agreement that is expected to add over US$7 million in annualized revenue.

The latest acquisition comes as Kodiak’s share price sits at US$55.90, with a 1 month share price return of 10.41% and a 90 day share price return of 52.44%, while total shareholder return over the past year is 55.52%. This suggests momentum has been building over recent months.

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With shares up strongly over the past quarter and trading close to analyst price targets, the key question is whether Kodiak is still undervalued or whether the recent acquisition and growth outlook are already fully reflected in the share price.

Most Popular Narrative: 5.3% Overvalued

The most followed fair value narrative puts Kodiak Gas Services at $53.08, slightly below the last close at $55.90, so the story hinges on future cash generation holding up.

High fleet utilization (over 97%), increased contracting of new large horsepower units at premium rates, and the long-term, fee-based nature of Kodiak's contracts underpin resilient, recurring revenue and EBITDA stability, providing earnings visibility even across choppy commodity price environments.

Curious what kind of revenue path and margin uplift need to line up for that fair value to make sense? The narrative leans on ambitious profit expansion, richer contract economics, and a future earnings multiple that assumes Kodiak keeps scaling efficiently while holding onto its pricing power.

Result: Fair Value of $53.08 (OVERVALUED)

However, this hinges on Permian activity and compression demand holding up, and any slowdown in producer spending or labor constraints could quickly challenge those fair value assumptions.

Another View: DCF Points the Other Way

While the popular fair value narrative has Kodiak about 5.3% above its US$53.08 estimate, the SWS DCF model presents a very different picture, with fair value at US$106.76 versus the current US$55.90. That is a wide gap, so which story appears more realistic to you?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Kodiak Gas Services for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 53 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Mixed signals or a clear setup, either way it pays to move quickly, test the assumptions against the numbers, and weigh the 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.