Northrop Grumman (NOC) is back in focus after partnering with satellite manufacturer Apex to develop space based missile interceptor systems for the U.S. Space Force, with ground tests completed and an on orbit demonstration targeted for 2027.

The recent space interceptor announcement comes after several other updates, including a nearly 7% dividend increase and defense propulsion work with Raytheon. However, the stock has seen a 30 day share price return of down 7.22% and a 90 day share price return of down 28.91%, while the 1 year total shareholder return is 8.76%. This suggests shorter term momentum has weakened compared to the longer term picture.

If this kind of defense and space activity has your attention, it can be useful to scan beyond a single stock and look at 33 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

With Northrop Grumman shares down double digits from recent levels, and analysts still seeing room to the upside, the key question is simple: are you looking at an undervalued defense and space stock, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 25.6% Undervalued

At a last close of $526.06 versus a narrative fair value of about $706.82, Northrop Grumman is framed as materially mispriced, with that gap tied directly to how future defense and space programs are modeled.

The ramp-up of advanced autonomous and integrated systems such as Beacon and IBCS, combined with ongoing investments in solid rocket motor capacity (targeting a near-doubling by 2029), positions the company to capitalize on high-growth, higher-margin market segments, thereby enhancing future operating margins and underlying cash flow.

Curious what sits behind that confidence in margins, cash flow and capacity expansion? The narrative leans on tight revenue assumptions, firm earnings projections and a richer future P/E multiple. The exact mix of those inputs is what drives that $706.82 fair value gap.

Result: Fair Value of $706.82 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the narrative can break if large U.S. programs face delays or cuts, or if cost overruns on fixed price contracts pressure margins and cash generation.

Wall Street's queuing for one rocket. While SpaceX counts down to its IPO, other companies tied to the new space race are already in orbit. → 20 Compelling Space Companies watchlist · Global Space Race Investing Ideas screener · Scan the sector by valuation on Rocket Lab's valuation page.

Another Way To Look At Value

The narrative valuation argues Northrop Grumman is 25.6% undervalued, yet our DCF model comes out far more cautious, with the stock at $526.06 trading slightly above an estimated future cash flow value of $522.54. If cash flows do not support a big gap, how much weight do you give the narrative premium?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Northrop Grumman for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 47 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With sentiment in this article pulling in both cautious and optimistic directions, it makes sense to move quickly and test the story against the underlying numbers yourself. A good place to start is 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.