ONEOK (OKE) is back in focus after its Q1 2026 earnings, where volume-driven growth across natural gas and NGL operations coincided with higher full-year net income and adjusted EBITDA guidance.

The recent Q1 2026 update, including raised net income and adjusted EBITDA guidance, has kept attention on ONEOK, with the share price at US$88.15 and strong momentum reflected in an 18.58% year to date share price return and a 5 year total shareholder return of 109.54%.

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With the stock at US$88.15, a 51% modelled intrinsic discount, and only a small gap to the average analyst price target, the key question is whether ONEOK still offers value or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 1% Overvalued

With ONEOK trading at $88.15 against a narrative fair value of about $87.30, the current price sits slightly above that modeled estimate, putting the focus on how the growth and margin story is being framed.

Strong integration and synergy capture following recent acquisitions (e.g., EnLink, Magellan, Medallion) are driving operating leverage and margin expansion, with further cross-asset optimization and record blending volumes anticipated to increase net margins and support double-digit EBITDA growth in the near to medium term.

Curious what sits behind that small premium. The most followed narrative leans on a specific blend of volume growth, margin uplift and a higher future earnings multiple, all stitched together with a single discount rate assumption.

Result: Fair Value of $87.30 (ABOUT RIGHT)

However, there are pressure points, including tighter commodity spreads that affect blending economics, as well as higher leverage from recent acquisitions that could challenge execution if conditions stay volatile.

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Another View: Cash Flow Points to a Deeper Discount

The narrative model suggests ONEOK is only about 1% overvalued at $88.15 versus an $87.30 fair value. Our DCF model tells a very different story, with a fair value of $181.58, implying the stock trades at roughly a 51.5% discount based on future cash flows. Which lens do you trust more for your own work?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out ONEOK for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 47 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With sentiment split between a slight premium on the narrative model and a deep discount on cash flows, this is a good moment to review the data yourself, weigh the concerns against the upside, and then check the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas?

If ONEOK is already on your radar, do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not the one hearing about the next opportunity late.

• Target stronger foundations by scanning stocks with resilient finances through the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (46 results).
• Spot potential value gaps early by reviewing the 47 high quality undervalued stocks before others catch on.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.